Demystifying Climate Models

By: Andrew Gettelman and Richard B. Rood

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Synopsis: This bookdemystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowingreaders to better understand how to use climate model results. In order topredict the future trajectory of the Earth's climate, climate-system simulationmodels are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? Thebook offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with abasic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technicalexplanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain,and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents currentresults and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not aweakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of usingany model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model outputhas been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties ofclimate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.