Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography: Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies (1st ed. 2022) (Methodos Series #17)

By: Jakub Bijak

Sign Up Now! Already a Member? Log In
You must be logged into Bookshare to access this title. Learn about membership options, or view our freely available titles.

Synopsis: This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.

Book Quality:: Publisher Quality
ISBN-13:: 9783030830397
Related ISBNs:: 9783030830380
Publisher:: Springer International Publishing
Date of Addition:: 12/16/22
Copyrighted By:: The Editor
Adult content:: No
Language:: English
Has Image Descriptions:: No
Categories:: Nonfiction, Social Studies, Mathematics and Statistics, Sociology
Submitted By:: Bookshare Staff
Usage Restrictions:: This is a copyrighted book.