Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence: A Guidebook for Scoping Scenario Options in Cyber and Beyond (Management for Professionals)

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Synopsis
This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning ‘(un)certainty’ to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today’s rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. ‘Red Teaming’. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, ‘Intelligence Engineering’ (IE) and, secondly, ‘Strategic Options Analysis’ (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities. The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.
Copyright:
2024

Book Details

Book Quality:
Publisher Quality
ISBN-13:
9783031661150
Related ISBNs:
9783031661143
Publisher:
Springer Nature Switzerland
Date of Addition:
Copyrighted By:
The Editor
Adult content:
No
Language:
English
Has Image Descriptions:
No
Categories:
Nonfiction, Computers and Internet, Business and Finance
Submitted By:
Bookshare Staff
Usage Restrictions:
This is a copyrighted book.

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