Predicting Suicide Attacks: Integrating Spatial, Temporal, and Social Features of Terrorist Attack Targets

By: Walter L. Perry and Claude Berrebi and Ryan Andrew Brown and John Hollywood and Amber Jaycocks and Parisa Roshan and Thomas Sullivan and Lisa Miyashiro

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Synopsis: As part of an exploration of ways to predict what determines the targets of suicide attacks, RAND conducted a proof-of-principle analysis of whether adding sociocultural, political, economic, and demographic factors would enhance the predictive ability of a methodology that focused on geospatial features. This test case focused on terrorist bombing incidents in Israel, but the findings indicate that the methodology merits further exploration.