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Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
by Peter Olofsson Mikael AnderssonPraise for the First Edition ". . . an excellent textbook . . . well organized and neatly written. " --Mathematical Reviews ". . . amazingly interesting . . . " --Technometrics Thoroughly updated to showcase the interrelationships between probability, statistics, and stochastic processes, Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, Second Edition prepares readers to collect, analyze, and characterize data in their chosen fields. Beginning with three chapters that develop probability theory and introduce the axioms of probability, random variables, and joint distributions, the book goes on to present limit theorems and simulation. The authors combine a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with an intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic. Including more than 400 examples that help illustrate concepts and theory, the Second Edition features new material on statistical inference and a wealth of newly added topics, including: Consistency of point estimators Large sample theory Bootstrap simulation Multiple hypothesis testing Fisher's exact test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test Martingales, renewal processes, and Brownian motion One-way analysis of variance and the general linear model Extensively class-tested to ensure an accessible presentation, Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, Second Edition is an excellent book for courses on probability and statistics at the upper-undergraduate level. The book is also an ideal resource for scientists and engineers in the fields of statistics, mathematics, industrial management, and engineering.
Probability Theory: An Introduction Using R
by Shailaja R. Deshmukh Akanksha S. KashikarThis book introduces Probability Theory with R software and explains abstract concepts in a simple and easy-to-understand way by combining theory and computation. It discusses conceptual and computational examples in detail, to provide a thorough understanding of basic techniques and develop an enjoyable read for students seeking suitable material for self-study. It illustrates fundamental concepts including fields, sigma-fields, random variables and their expectations, various modes of convergence of a sequence of random variables, laws of large numbers and the central limit theorem. Computational exercises based on R software are included in each Chapter Includes a brief introduction to the basic functions of R software for beginners in R and serves as a ready reference Includes Numerical computations, simulation studies, and visualizations using R software as easy tools to explain abstract concepts Provides multiple-choice questions for practice Incorporates self-explanatory R codes in every chapter This textbook is for advanced students, professionals, and academic researchers of Statistics, Biostatistics, Economics and Mathematics.
Probability Theory and Statistical Inference: Empirical Modeling with Observational Data
by Aris SpanosDoubt over the trustworthiness of published empirical results is not unwarranted and is often a result of statistical mis-specification: invalid probabilistic assumptions imposed on data. Now in its second edition, this bestselling textbook offers a comprehensive course in empirical research methods, teaching the probabilistic and statistical foundations that enable the specification and validation of statistical models, providing the basis for an informed implementation of statistical procedure to secure the trustworthiness of evidence. Each chapter has been thoroughly updated, accounting for developments in the field and the author's own research. The comprehensive scope of the textbook has been expanded by the addition of a new chapter on the Linear Regression and related statistical models. This new edition is now more accessible to students of disciplines beyond economics and includes more pedagogical features, with an increased number of examples as well as review questions and exercises at the end of each chapter.
Probability Theory I: Random Variables and Distributions (UNITEXT #165)
by Andrea PascucciThis book provides a concise yet rigorous introduction to probability theory. Among the possible approaches to the subject, the most modern approach based on measure theory has been chosen: although it requires a higher degree of mathematical abstraction and sophistication, it is essential to provide the foundations for the study of more advanced topics such as stochastic processes, stochastic differential calculus and statistical inference. The text originated from the teaching experience in probability and applied mathematics courses within the mathematics degree program at the University of Bologna; it is suitable for second- or third-year students in mathematics, physics, or other natural sciences, assuming multidimensional differential and integral calculus as a prerequisite. The four chapters cover the following topics: measures and probability spaces; random variables; sequences of random variables and limit theorems; and expectation and conditional distribution. The text includes a collection of solved exercises.
Probable Justice: Risk, Insurance, and the Welfare State
by Rachel Z. FriedmanDecades into its existence as a foundational aspect of modern political and economic life, the welfare state has become a political cudgel, used to assign blame for ballooning national debt and tout the need for personal responsibility. At the same time, it affects nearly every citizen and permeates daily life—in the form of pension, disability, and unemployment benefits, healthcare and parental leave policies, and more. At the core of that disjunction is the question of how we as a society decide who should get what benefits—and how much we are willing to pay to do so. Probable Justice traces a history of social insurance from the eighteenth century to today, from the earliest ideas of social accountability through the advanced welfare state of collective responsibility and risk. At the heart of Rachel Z. Friedman’s investigation is a study of how probability theory allows social insurance systems to flexibly measure risk and distribute coverage. The political genius of social insurance, Friedman shows, is that it allows for various accommodations of needs, risks, financing, and political aims—and thereby promotes security and fairness for citizens of liberal democracies.
Probably the Best Book on Statistics Ever Written: How to Beat the Odds and Make Better Decisions
by Haim ShapiraTaking an amusing and digestible look at the usually dry world of probability and statistics, this is the ultimate guide to how you can incorporate them into everyday life, from one of the world's most sought-after experts in game theory. This is the only book you need to become a statistics whizz! Numbers are everywhere – food packaging, weather forecasts, social media, adverts, and more. You can&’t escape them. But you can learn to understand them – and avoid being fooled! This book breaks down the key fundamentals in statistics in a fun and accessible way so that you can understand the numbers that occupy your life. • Make sense of sports stats – discover who is the greatest scorer of all time • Learn to interpret scientific studies and how they&’re reported in the media so you&’re never misled again • Discover tips and tricks to make you a more successful gambler • Explore what role stats has to play in flat-earth conspiracy arguments • Read about misunderstood probabilities in the Sally Clarke and OJ Simpson trials With easy-to-follow explanations, tables, graphs, and real-life examples, this book helps you evaluate your options, calculate your chances of success, and make better decisions.
Probate: A Self-help Guide
by Gordon BowleyThe majority of applications for probate that follow someone's death can be dealt with inexpensively by any reasonably intelligent person with time available and a little guidance. This easy-to-follow book clearly explains all the information you need to administer the deceased's estate; from dealing with the urgent practical matters to preparing and submitting the relevant forms, paying inheritance tax, and distributing the estate. You'll find specimen forms and letters and a list of useful addresses that will enable you to deal with it all yourself.
Probate
by Gordon BowleyThe majority of applications for probate that follow someone's death can be dealt with inexpensively by any reasonably intelligent person with time available and a little guidance. This easy-to-follow book clearly explains all the information you need to administer the deceased's estate; from dealing with the urgent practical matters to preparing and submitting the relevant forms, paying inheritance tax, and distributing the estate. You'll find specimen forms and letters and a list of useful addresses that will enable you to deal with it all yourself.
Probate Wars of the Rich and Famous: An Insider's Guide to Estate Planning and Probate Litigation
by Russell J. FishkindSurrogate Court dockets are filled with cases involving family members fighting over the assets and intentions of a deceased parent or spouse. Probate Wars of the Rich & Famous: An Insider’s Guide to Estate Planning and Probate Litigation tracks the estate litigation cases of Anna Nicole Smith, Brooke Astor, Michael Jackson, Nina Wang, Jerry Garcia and Leona Helmsley and identifies the five universal factors that caused such disputes. Each chapter provides estate planning insights designed to help individuals plan their estates without causing litigation. If, however, probate litigation cannot be avoided, the book also provides invaluable lessons about undue influence claims, how to remove a fiduciary, demanding an estate accounting and claims seeking to set aside lifetime transfers that undermined the decedents intentions. Few - if any – estate planning books utilize colorful celebrity accounts to provide meaningful insights and actionable advice.
Probing the Bureaucratic Mind: About Canadian Federal Executives
by Ruth Hubbard Gilles PaquetThis book explores the thinking of Canadian federal public service senior executives through conversations. The transformation of the environment and of the institutional order has created quite a challenge: maintaining some sort of adequacy between these evolving realities and the frames of reference in use by public sector executives. Complexity is often nothing more than a name for a new order calling for a new frame of reference, and the reluctance to abandon old conceptual frameworks is often responsible for fundamental learning disabilities. Through a series of conversations with Canadian federal senior executives about more and more daunting problems - from coping with an evolving context, to engaging intelligently with a new modus operandi, to trying to nudge and tweak programs in order to correct toxic pathologies, to reframing perceptions and redesigning organizations to meet the new challenges—weaknesses of the capabilities of the Canadian federal executives to respond to current challenges were revealed, and suggestions made about ways to kick start a process of refurbishment of these capabilities.
Problem: How to Define Your Decision Problem to Solve the Right Problem
by John S. Hammond Ralph L. Keeney Howard RaiffaThe way you frame your decision at the outset can make all the difference. This chapter describes one of the keys to effective decision making: stating your decision problems carefully, acknowledging their complexity and avoiding unwarranted assumptions and prejudices.
Problem-Based Learning in Clinical Education: The Next Generation
by Tara L. Whitehill Colman Mcgrath Susan BridgesDeveloped in the context of health sciences education in the late 1960s, problem-based learning (PBL) is now widely deployed as an education methodology. Its problem-solving, collaborative, student-centred ethos is seen as a more appropriate system of pedagogy than earlier 'chalk-and-talk' modes. Focusing on its use in clinical education, this collection of recent scholarship on PBL examines the ways in which PBL is both conceived and implemented in clinical education. The work has a dual emphasis, research-driven on the one hand, while on the other assessing new methodologies to explore how problem-based curricula support the achievement of students' learning outcomes in the context of clinical education. The chapters draw on studies that explore PBL both theoretically and empirically. The volume's eclecticism capitalises on the growing body of empirical research into PBL evaluations. It balances this with studies analysing the relatively new area of discourse-based research on PBL-in-action, whose focus has been to interrogate the 'how' of student learning in curricula with PBL content.This publication will be of interest to clinical teachers, curriculum designers and those interested in innovations in the scholarship of teaching and learning in PBL curricula.
Problem Hunting: The Tech Startup Textbook
by Brian LongA unicorn founder gives step-by-step advice on everything from finding product-market fit to managing investors In Problem Hunting: The Tech Startup Textbook, Brian Long offers a tactical approach to building a tech company based on his experience growing a multi-billion dollar software business and selling another business to Twitter for nine figures. This is a daily playbook that any budding entrepreneur will return to over and over again as a reference when building their business.Problem Hunting is broken down into chapters giving simple, step-by-step advice for each stage and functional department needed to run a startup tech company: Finding and testing product market fit Creating and refining your product Selling and marketing your new solution Hiring your team and building your culture Mobilizing financial, legal, and compliance functions Pitching investors and securing funding Built upon learning and anecdotes from a unicorn founder, Problem Hunting has everything prospective entrepreneurs and leaders need to start their business.
A Problem of Fit: How the Complexity of College Pricing Hurts Students—and Universities
by Phillip B. LevineA critical examination of the complex system of college pricing—how it works, how it fails, and how fixing it can help both students and universities. How much does it cost to attend college in the United States today? The answer is more complex than many realize. College websites advertise a sticker price, but uncovering the actual price—the one after incorporating financial aid—can be difficult for students and families. This inherent uncertainty leads some students to forgo applying to colleges that would be the best fit for them, or even not attend college at all. The result is that millions of promising young people may lose out on one of society’s greatest opportunities for social mobility. Colleges suffer too, losing prospective students and seeing lower enrollments and less socioeconomic diversity. If markets require prices to function well, then the American higher-education system—rife as it is with ambiguity in its pricing—amounts to a market failure. In A Problem of Fit, economist Phillip B. Levine explains why institutions charge the prices they do and discusses the role of financial aid systems in facilitating—and discouraging—access to college. Affordability issues are real, but price transparency is also part of the problem. As Levine makes clear, our conversations around affordability and free tuition miss a larger truth: that the opacity of our current college-financing systems is a primary driver of inequities in education and society. In a clear-eyed assessment of educational access and aid in a post-COVID-19 economy, A Problem of Fit offers a trenchant new argument for educational reforms that are well within reach.
The Problem of Foreign Policy: A Consideration of Present Dangers and the Best Methods for Meeting Them (Routledge Revivals)
by Gilbert MurrayFirst published in 1921, Gilbert Murray’s treatise considers a largely euro-centric foreign policy during the inter-war period. Believing passionately in the prospect of a Liberal England and the hope promised by the League of Nations, with Britain at its centre, Murray argues that a secure future can only be obtained through ‘equal law, good government and good faith’. Concentrating on a number of country-based studies, the main focus is on how to avoid the causes of international war; Murray supports the International Financial Commission’s recommendation that this could be partly achieved through disarmament and freedom of trade. This is a fascinating title that will be of particular value to history students researching the inter-war period and the League of Nations.
The Problem of International Investment 1937
by Royal Institute of International AffairsOriginally published in 1937, this is a report by a study group of members of the Royal Institute of International Affairs and aims to fill a gap in the literature of international economics. It is an attempt, in the first place, to analyse objectively the conditions under which long-term capital may move between countries and to consider carefully the special factors in the world economy of to-day which tend to limit the extent to which such movements are possible or desirable. Secondly, the book contains a careful study of the post-war history of international investments which brings together facts and figures which are inaccessible to most students and businessmen.
The Problem of Political Trust: A Conceptual Reformulation (Routledge Frontiers of Political Economy)
by Grant DuncanTrust has been the subject of empirical and theoretical inquiry in a range of disciplines, including sociology, economics, psychology, philosophy, public policy and political theory. The book approaches trust from a multi-disciplinary scope of inquiry. It explains why most existing definitions and theories of trust are inadequate. The book examines how trust evolved from a quality of personal relationships into a critical factor in political institutions and representation, and to an abstract and impersonal factor that applies now to complex systems, including monetary systems. It makes a distinctive contribution by recasting trust conceptually in dialectical and pragmatic terms, and reapplying the concept to our understanding of critical issues in politics and political economy.
The Problem of Production: A new theory of the firm (Routledge Advances in Heterodox Economics #1)
by Per L BylundThe theory of the firm has been fertile ground for economists. Bylund proposes a new theory, rooted in Austrian economics, which examines the firm as a part of the market, and not as a free-standing entity. In this integrated view, a theory is offered which incorporates entrepreneurship, production, market process and economic development.
The Problem of Property: Taking the Freedom of Nonowners Seriously (Exploring the Basic Income Guarantee)
by Karl WiderquistThis book is Karl Widerquist's first statement of the “indepentarian” theory of justice, or what he calls “Justice as the Pursuit of Accord” (JPA). It provides five arguments for UBI, one based on the JPA theory of freedom, another based on the JPA theory of property, and three that reply to common objections to UBI. Each of these three turns the argument around using the central concepts in a justification for UBI. Although the central argument is for one specific policy proposal, this book's perspective is much wider, including very basic criticism of social-contract-based and natural-rights-based theories of justice.
The Problem of Solidarity: Theories and Models
by Patrick Doreian Thomas FararoPresently the world is undergoing tremendous social, cultural and economic transformation. For sociologists, the challenge is arriving at a sound mapping of this tumultuous world stage.In this book, the contributing authors consider solidarity as a cognitive problem of basic science. They examine how solidarity is produced and reproduced, how it is related to social processes, and how such processes can be formalized and create conditions for productively studying their properties. Mathematical models and representations are presented by the authors as a coherent set of tools for understanding many social phenomena.
The Problem of the Unemployed: An Enquiry and an Economic Policy (Routledge Revivals)
by J. A. HobsonFirst published in 1896, this seminal work considers the Question of the Unemployed at the height of imperialist capitalism. Hobson proposes a controversial theory of social progress, which argues that unemployment is a natural and necessary result of the mal-distribution of consumption power. In a comprehensive assessment of the practicalities of capitalism, The Problem of the Unemployed considers the root causes and meaning of unemployment and possible solutions to the issue.
The Problem of Trust and Monopoly Control (Routledge Library Editions: Industrial Economics #24)
by A.P.L. GordonThis book, first published in 1928, was written at a time when the tendency in industry was towards the formation of large combines. With competition growing as markets and methods of communication grew, many manufacturers considered their only option was to unite in self-defence, setting up a movement that restrictive legislation was unable to check. This book analyses the proper relations between monopolistic combines and the State, and was the first to examine the German experience of organised monopoly, and the means used to prevent it from becoming a mere protection for inefficient producers.
The Problem of Uncertainty in Talent Demand: Focusing on Internal Development
by Peter CappelliWhen you recognize that talent management is a business problem, it makes sense to apply what you know about structuring challenges in ways that are most cost effective. This chapter explains how to structure internal development to reduce uncertainty and lower costs by using techniques from operations research. These techniques include shortening the forecasting cycle, relying on the principle of portfolios to reduce variability, and reorganizing the delivery of developmental programs to improve responsiveness.
Problem Solver: Maximizing Your Strengths to Make Better Decisions (AREA Method Publications)
by Cheryl Strauss EinhornOur decisions are expressions of who we are and how we move through the world. Rarely, though, do we examine our decisions or even look inward to consider the psychology of our decision-making. Instead, we often make decisions based on what we call instinct (which relies on cognitive bias), false assumptions, mis-remembering, and mental mistakes. Truthfully, we don't see the world as it is; we see it as we are. We can develop self-knowledge about our decision-making styles. We can wake ourselves up to how biases cloud our judgment and impede good decision-making—and we can counter bias. From there, we can transform our decision-making habits to make better big decisions alone and together. Problem Solver provides you with tools to identify:• The five basic decision-making approaches, or "Problem Solver Profiles" (PSPs): Adventurer, Detective, Listener, Thinker, and Visionary • Your dominant—and secondary—PSPs• Tools to assess other peoples' PSPs• Each PSP's decision-making strengths, blind spots, and biases• How your PSP impacts your outlook on life and your risk appetite• How to use your PSP to maximize your decision strengths Replete with real-life examples and replicable strategies to apply new decision-making skills for your immediate benefit, Problem Solver will do more than help you look out into a future; it will equip you to move forward, with confidence, into your future.
Problem Solving: Perspectives from Cognition and Neuroscience
by S. Ian RobertsonThe way that we assess and overcome problems is an essential part of everyday life. Problem Solving provides a clear introduction to the underlying mental processes involved in solving problems. Drawing on research from cognitive psychology and neuroscience, it examines the methods and techniques used by both novices and experts in familiar and unfamiliar situations. This edition has been comprehensively updated throughout, and now features cutting-edge content on creative problem solving, insight and neuroscience. Each chapter is written in an accessible way, and contains a range of student-friendly features such as activities, chapter summaries and further reading. The book also provides clear examples of studies and approaches that help the reader fully understand important and complex concepts in greater detail. Problem Solving fully engages the reader with the difficulties and methodologies associated with problem solving. This book will be of great use to undergraduate students of cognitive psychology, education and neuroscience, as well as readers and professionals with an interest in problem solving.