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Rising Threats in Expert Applications and Solutions: Proceedings of FICR-TEAS 2022 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems #434)
by Vijay Singh Rathore Subhash Chander Sharma Joao Manuel R. S. Tavares Catarina Moreira B. SurendiranThe book presents high-quality, peer-reviewed papers from the FICR International Conference on Rising Threats in Expert Applications and Solutions 2022 organized by IIS (Deemed to be University), Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, during January 7–8, 2022. The volume is a collection of innovative ideas from researchers, scientists, academicians, industry professionals, and students. The book covers a variety of topics, such as expert applications and artificial intelligence/machine learning; advance web technologies such as IoT, big data, cloud computing in expert applications; information and cyber security threats and solutions, multimedia applications in forensics, security and intelligence; advancements in app development; management practices for expert applications; and social and ethical aspects in expert applications through applied sciences.
Risk: All That Matters
by Clive Steeper Sue StockdaleWe are all risk takers. In life and in business, human attitudes towards risk are terrifyingly irrational. We hugely over-estimate short-term risks (standing near a cliff edge, or selling to someone who may not be credit worthy) but we under-estimate long-term risks (smoking, or acquiring a large company). This book seeks to understand risk from the human perspective. Why do we decide the things that we do, and how can we do it differently or better? This book should be required reading not just for students of business or economics, but for anyone faced with making important decisions.
Risk: All That Matters (All That Matters)
by Sue Stockdale Clive SteeperWe are all risk takers.In life and in business, human attitudes towards risk are terrifyingly irrational. We hugely over-estimate short-term risks (standing near a cliff edge, or selling to someone who may not be credit worthy) but we under-estimate long-term risks (smoking, or acquiring a large company).This book seeks to understand risk from the human perspective. Why do we decide the things that we do, and how can we do it differently or better? This book should be required reading not just for students of business or economics, but for anyone faced with making important decisions.
Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends
by Mohammad ModarresBased on the author's 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of risk analysis on the p
Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics
by Bilal M. AyyubRisk Analysis in Engineering and Economics is required reading for decision making under conditions of uncertainty. The author describes the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive e
Risk Analysis in Finance and Insurance
by Alexander MelnikovRisk Analysis in Finance and Insurance, Second Edition presents an accessible yet comprehensive introduction to the main concepts and methods that transform risk management into a quantitative science. Taking into account the interdisciplinary nature of risk analysis, the author discusses many important ideas from mathematics, finance, and actuaria
Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems
by Louis Anthony Cox Jr.In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems - systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence - and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure. This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.
Risk and Insurance: A Graduate Text (Probability Theory and Stochastic Modelling #96)
by Søren Asmussen Mogens SteffensenThis textbook provides a broad overview of the present state of insurance mathematics and some related topics in risk management, financial mathematics and probability. Both non-life and life aspects are covered. The emphasis is on probability and modeling rather than statistics and practical implementation. Aimed at the graduate level, pointing in part to current research topics, it can potentially replace other textbooks on basic non-life insurance mathematics and advanced risk management methods in non-life insurance. Based on chapters selected according to the particular topics in mind, the book may serve as a source for introductory courses to insurance mathematics for non-specialists, advanced courses for actuarial students, or courses on probabilistic aspects of risk. It will also be useful for practitioners and students/researchers in related areas such as finance and statistics who wish to get an overview of the general area of mathematical modeling and analysis in insurance.
Risk and Reward: The Science of Casino Blackjack
by N. Richard WerthamerFor decades, casino gaming has been steadily increasing in popularity worldwide. Blackjack is among the most popular of the casino table games, one where astute choices of playing strategy can create an advantage for the player. RISK AND REWARD analyzes the game in depth, pinpointing not just its optimal strategies but also its financial performance, in terms of both expected cash flow and associated risk. The book begins by describing the strategies and their performance in a clear, straightforward style. The presentation is self-contained, non-mathematical, and accessible to readers at all levels of playing skill, from the novice to the blackjack expert. Careful attention is also given to simplified, but still nearly optimal strategies that are easier to use in a casino. Unlike other books in the literature the author then derives each aspect of the strategy mathematically, to justify its claim to optimality. The derivations mostly use algebra and calculus, although some require more advanced analysis detailed in supporting appendices. For easy comprehension, formulae are translated into tables and graphs through extensive computation. This book will appeal to everyone interested in blackjack: those with mathematical training intrigued by its application to this popular game as well as all players seeking to improve their performance.
Risk and Reward
by N. Richard WerthamerFor decades, casino gaming has been steadily increasing in popularity worldwide. Blackjack is among the most popular of the casino table games, one where astute choices of playing strategy can create an advantage for the player. RISK AND REWARD analyzes the game in depth, pinpointing not just its optimal strategies but also its financial performance, in terms of both expected cash flow and associated risk. The book begins by describing the strategies and their performance in a clear, straightforward style. The presentation is self-contained, non-mathematical, and accessible to readers at all levels of playing skill, from the novice to the blackjack expert. Careful attention is also given to simplified, but still nearly optimal strategies that are easier to use in a casino. Unlike other books in the literature the author then derives each aspect of the strategy mathematically, to justify its claim to optimality. The derivations mostly use algebra and calculus, although some require more advanced analysis detailed in supporting appendices. For easy comprehension, formulae are translated into tables and graphs through extensive computation. This book will appeal to everyone interested in blackjack: those with mathematical training intrigued by its application to this popular game as well as all players seeking to improve their performance.
Risk and the Theory of Security Risk Assessment (Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications)
by Carl S. YoungThis book provides the conceptual foundation of security risk assessment and thereby enables reasoning about risk from first principles. It presents the underlying theory that is the basis of a rigorous and universally applicable security risk assessment methodology. Furthermore, the book identifies and explores concepts with profound operational implications that have traditionally been sources of ambiguity if not confusion in security risk management. Notably, the text provides a simple quantitative model for complexity, a significant driver of risk that is typically not addressed in security-related contexts. Risk and The Theory of Security Risk Assessment is a primer of security risk assessment pedagogy, but it also provides methods and metrics to actually estimate the magnitude of security risk. Concepts are explained using numerous examples, which are at times both enlightening and entertaining. As a result, the book bridges a longstanding gap between theory and practice, and therefore will be a useful reference to students, academics and security practitioners.
Risk and Uncertainty Reduction by Using Algebraic Inequalities
by Michael T. TodinovThis book covers the application of algebraic inequalities for reliability improvement and for uncertainty and risk reduction. It equips readers with powerful domain-independent methods for reducing risk based on algebraic inequalities and demonstrates the significant benefits derived from the application for risk and uncertainty reduction. Algebraic inequalities: • Provide a powerful reliability improvement, risk and uncertainty reduction method that transcends engineering and can be applied in various domains of human activity • Present an effective tool for dealing with deep uncertainty related to key reliability-critical parameters of systems and processes • Permit meaningful interpretations which link abstract inequalities with the real world • Offer a tool for determining tight bounds for the variation of risk-critical parameters and complying the design with these bounds to avoid failure • Allow optimising designs and processes by minimising the deviation of critical output parameters from their specified values and maximising their performance This book is primarily for engineering professionals and academic researchers in virtually all existing engineering disciplines.
Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications (Statistics in Practice)
by Marvin Rausand Stein HaugenIntroduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice—from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new 2nd Edition discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today. The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk. Risk Assessment also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk. Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.
Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks
by Norman Fenton Martin NeilSince the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.
Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Second Edition
by Glenn KollerBuilding upon the technical and organizational groundwork presented in the first edition, Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Second Edition addresses the many aspects of risk/uncertainty (R/U) process implementation. This comprehensive volume covers four broad aspects of R/U: general concepts, i
Risk Assessment of Dams (Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering)
by Aytaç Güven Alper AydemirThis book offers a timely report on methods for risk assessment procedures for dams, with a special emphasis on dams with small storage dimensions. It starts by introducing all important definitions relating to dams, dam safety, such as the most common failure modes, and risks. In turn, it describes in detail the most important evaluation procedures for various failure modes such as piping, flood, earthquake and stability are described in this chapter. Consequence assessment procedures, together with the different steps of the risk evaluation process, are analyzed, providing a guide on how to identify the appropriate failure mode for the examined dam and setting up the appropriate safety plan. The book introduces the most common methods for predicting peak breach discharge, analyzing some relevant case studies. Upon comparing the findings obtained with the different methods, the book concludes with some general suggestions and ideas for future developments. This book fills an important gap between theoretical works and real-life problems being investigating in practical research studies on dam safety and risk management. It provides readers with the necessary knowledge on risk analysis and shows how to apply this in practice to carry out dam safety studies. It offers practical guidelines to set up risk assessment procedures for different failure modes and predicting failure parameters such as failure time, peak breach discharge and breach width.
Risk Assessment with Time to Event Models (Environmental and Ecological Risk Assessment)
by Mark Crane Michael C. Newman Peter F. Chapman John FenlonHow can environmental regulators use information on 48-hour toxicity tests to predict the effects of a few minutes of pollution? Or, at the other extreme, what is the relevance of 96-hour toxicity data for organisms that may have been exposed to a pollutant for six months or more? Time to event methods are the key to answering these types of questi
Risk-Averse Optimization and Control: Theory and Methods (Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering)
by Darinka Dentcheva Andrzej RuszczyńskiThis book offers a comprehensive presentation of the theory and methods of risk-averse optimization and control. Problems of this type arise in finance, energy production and distribution, supply chain management, medicine, and many other areas, where not only the average performance of a stochastic system is essential, but also high-impact and low-probability events must be taken into account. The book is a self-contained presentation of the utility theory, the theory of measures of risk, including systemic and dynamic measures of risk, and their use in optimization and control models. It also covers stochastic dominance relations and their application as constraints in optimization models. Optimality conditions for problems with nondifferentiable and nonconvex functions and operators involving risk measures and stochastic dominance relations are discussed. Much attention is paid to multi-stage risk-averse optimization problems and to risk-averse Markov decision problems. Specialized algorithms for solving risk-averse optimization and control problems are presented and analyzed: stochastic subgradient methods for risk optimization, decomposition methods for dynamic problems, event cut and dual methods for stochastic dominance constraints, and policy iteration methods for control problems. The target audience is researchers and graduate students in the areas of mathematics, business analytics, insurance and finance, engineering, and computer science. The theoretical considerations are illustrated with examples, which make the book useful material for advanced courses in the area.
Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty: Three Centuries of Economic Decision-Making
by George G. SzpiroAt its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally.In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. Szpiro examines economics from the early days of theories spun from anecdotal evidence to the rise of a discipline built around elegant mathematics through the past half century’s interest in describing how people actually behave. Considering the work of Locke, Bentham, Jevons, Walras, Friedman, Tversky and Kahneman, Thaler, and a range of other thinkers, he sheds light on the vast scope of discovery since Bernoulli first proposed a solution to the St. Petersburg Paradox. Presenting fundamental mathematical theories in easy-to-understand language, Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty is a revelatory history for readers seeking to grasp the grand sweep of economic thought.
Risk Management and Simulation
by Aparna GuptaThe challenges of the current financial environment have revealed the need for a new generation of professionals who combine training in traditional finance disciplines with an understanding of sophisticated quantitative and analytical tools. Risk Management and Simulation shows how simulation modeling and analysis can help you solve risk managemen
Risk Management in Banks and Insurance Companies: Step by Step (Springer Texts in Business and Economics)
by Dietmar Ernst Anja Blatter Sean Bradbury Pascal BruhnThis book shows how modern risk management in banks and insurance companies can be modeled in Excel and Matlab. Readers are provided with all the necessary knowledge and skills in a systematic and structured step-by-step manner. Apart from basic Excel knowledge, no previous knowledge is required. The textbook is divided into five parts. First, the reader learns the basics of analyzing and modeling market risks. Next, the authors introduce and explain the modeling of credit risks and operational risks are quantified by calibrating loss distributions based on expert estimates. Furthermore, individual risk measures are examined in more detail. In order to calculate a risk measure for an overall portfolio to determine the risk capital, the question of the aggregation method is discussed. There are various common concepts for this, which are examined in more detail in the last part of the book.The book is aimed at students of business administration with a focus on financial services. Accompanying the book, readers receive Excel spreadsheets as digital bonus material for practice and application.
Risk Management in Credit Portfolios: Concentration Risk and Basel II
by Martin HibbelnRisk concentrations play a crucial role for the survival of individual banks and for the stability of the whole banking system. Thus, it is important from an economical and a regulatory perspective to properly measure and manage these concentrations. In this book, the impact of credit concentrations on portfolio risk is analyzed for different portfolio types and it is determined, in which cases the influence of concentration risk has to be taken into account. Furthermore, some models for the measurement of concentration risk are modified to be consistent with Basel II and their performance is compared. Beyond that, this book integrates economical and regulatory aspects of concentration risk and seeks to provide a systematic way to get familiar with the topic of concentration risk from the basics of credit risk modeling to present research in the measurement and management of credit risk concentrations.
Risk Management Methods in the Aviation Enterprise (Springer Aerospace Technology)
by Valery Dmitryevich Sharov Vadim Vadimovich Vorobyov Dmitry Alexandrovich ZatuchnyThis book provides a comprehensive content for professionals engaged in the development of flight safety regulatory framework, as well as in the design and operation of ground-based or on-board flight support radio electronic systems. It presents mathematical tools and methods of probabilistic theory, mathematical statistics and graph theory, along with some provisions of decision-making theory and multi-criteria analysis. This book helps as a good guide for those involved in aviation risk assessment and air traffic management.
The Risk Management of Contingent Convertible (SpringerBriefs in Finance)
by Jan De Spiegeleer Ine Marquet Wim Schoutens<p>This book provides an overview of the risk components of CoCo bonds. CoCos are hybrid financial instruments that convert into equity or suffer a write-down of the face value upon the appearance of a trigger event. The loss-absorption mechanism is automatically enforced either via the breaching of a particular accounting ratio, typically in terms of the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, or via a regulatory trigger. <p>CoCos are non-standardised instruments with different loss-absorption and trigger mechanisms. They might also contain additional features such as the cancellation of coupon payments. <p>Different pricing models are discussed in detail. These models use market data such as share prices, CDS levels and implied volatility in order to calculate the theoretical price of a CoCo bond and its sensitivities, providing the investor with insides to hedge from adverse changes in the market conditions. <p>The audience are professionals as well as academics who want to learn how to risk manage CoCo bonds using cutting edge techniques as well as all the risk involved in CoCo bonds.</p>
Risk Management Technologies
by E. D. SolozhentsevThis book presents intellectual, innovative, information technologies (I3-technologies) based on logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models. The technologies presented here consider such models for structurally complex systems and processes with logical links and with random events in economics and technology. The volume describes the following components of risk management technologies: LP-calculus; classes of LP-models of risk and efficiency; procedures for different classes; special software for different classes; examples of applications; methods for the estimation of probabilities of events based on expert information. Also described are a variety of training courses in these topics. The classes of risk models treated here are: LP-modeling, LP-classification, LP-efficiency, and LP-forecasting. Particular attention is paid to LP-models of risk of failure to resolve difficult economic and technical problems. Amongst the discussed procedures of I3-technologies are the construction of LP-models, LP-identification of risk models; LP-risk analysis, LP-management and LP-forecasting of risk. The book further considers LP-models of risk of invalidity of systems and processes in accordance with the requirements of ISO 9001-2008, LP-models of bank operational risks in accordance with the requirements of Basel-2, complex risk LP-models for preventing ammunition depot explosions, enterprise electric power supply systems, debugging tests of technical systems, etc. The book also considers LP-models of credit risks, securities portfolios, operational risks in banking, conteraction of bribes and corruption, etc. A number of applications is given to show the effectiveness of risk management technologies. In addition, topics of lectures and practical computer exercises intended for a two-semester course "Risk management technologies" are suggested.