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Risk Assessment with Time to Event Models (Environmental and Ecological Risk Assessment)
by Mark Crane Michael C. Newman Peter F. Chapman John FenlonHow can environmental regulators use information on 48-hour toxicity tests to predict the effects of a few minutes of pollution? Or, at the other extreme, what is the relevance of 96-hour toxicity data for organisms that may have been exposed to a pollutant for six months or more? Time to event methods are the key to answering these types of questi
Risk-Averse Optimization and Control: Theory and Methods (Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering)
by Darinka Dentcheva Andrzej RuszczyńskiThis book offers a comprehensive presentation of the theory and methods of risk-averse optimization and control. Problems of this type arise in finance, energy production and distribution, supply chain management, medicine, and many other areas, where not only the average performance of a stochastic system is essential, but also high-impact and low-probability events must be taken into account. The book is a self-contained presentation of the utility theory, the theory of measures of risk, including systemic and dynamic measures of risk, and their use in optimization and control models. It also covers stochastic dominance relations and their application as constraints in optimization models. Optimality conditions for problems with nondifferentiable and nonconvex functions and operators involving risk measures and stochastic dominance relations are discussed. Much attention is paid to multi-stage risk-averse optimization problems and to risk-averse Markov decision problems. Specialized algorithms for solving risk-averse optimization and control problems are presented and analyzed: stochastic subgradient methods for risk optimization, decomposition methods for dynamic problems, event cut and dual methods for stochastic dominance constraints, and policy iteration methods for control problems. The target audience is researchers and graduate students in the areas of mathematics, business analytics, insurance and finance, engineering, and computer science. The theoretical considerations are illustrated with examples, which make the book useful material for advanced courses in the area.
Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty: Three Centuries of Economic Decision-Making
by George G. SzpiroAt its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally.In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. Szpiro examines economics from the early days of theories spun from anecdotal evidence to the rise of a discipline built around elegant mathematics through the past half century’s interest in describing how people actually behave. Considering the work of Locke, Bentham, Jevons, Walras, Friedman, Tversky and Kahneman, Thaler, and a range of other thinkers, he sheds light on the vast scope of discovery since Bernoulli first proposed a solution to the St. Petersburg Paradox. Presenting fundamental mathematical theories in easy-to-understand language, Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty is a revelatory history for readers seeking to grasp the grand sweep of economic thought.
Risk Management and Simulation
by Aparna GuptaThe challenges of the current financial environment have revealed the need for a new generation of professionals who combine training in traditional finance disciplines with an understanding of sophisticated quantitative and analytical tools. Risk Management and Simulation shows how simulation modeling and analysis can help you solve risk managemen
Risk Management in Banks and Insurance Companies: Step by Step (Springer Texts in Business and Economics)
by Dietmar Ernst Anja Blatter Sean Bradbury Pascal BruhnThis book shows how modern risk management in banks and insurance companies can be modeled in Excel and Matlab. Readers are provided with all the necessary knowledge and skills in a systematic and structured step-by-step manner. Apart from basic Excel knowledge, no previous knowledge is required. The textbook is divided into five parts. First, the reader learns the basics of analyzing and modeling market risks. Next, the authors introduce and explain the modeling of credit risks and operational risks are quantified by calibrating loss distributions based on expert estimates. Furthermore, individual risk measures are examined in more detail. In order to calculate a risk measure for an overall portfolio to determine the risk capital, the question of the aggregation method is discussed. There are various common concepts for this, which are examined in more detail in the last part of the book.The book is aimed at students of business administration with a focus on financial services. Accompanying the book, readers receive Excel spreadsheets as digital bonus material for practice and application.
Risk Management in Credit Portfolios: Concentration Risk and Basel II
by Martin HibbelnRisk concentrations play a crucial role for the survival of individual banks and for the stability of the whole banking system. Thus, it is important from an economical and a regulatory perspective to properly measure and manage these concentrations. In this book, the impact of credit concentrations on portfolio risk is analyzed for different portfolio types and it is determined, in which cases the influence of concentration risk has to be taken into account. Furthermore, some models for the measurement of concentration risk are modified to be consistent with Basel II and their performance is compared. Beyond that, this book integrates economical and regulatory aspects of concentration risk and seeks to provide a systematic way to get familiar with the topic of concentration risk from the basics of credit risk modeling to present research in the measurement and management of credit risk concentrations.
Risk Management Methods in the Aviation Enterprise (Springer Aerospace Technology)
by Valery Dmitryevich Sharov Vadim Vadimovich Vorobyov Dmitry Alexandrovich ZatuchnyThis book provides a comprehensive content for professionals engaged in the development of flight safety regulatory framework, as well as in the design and operation of ground-based or on-board flight support radio electronic systems. It presents mathematical tools and methods of probabilistic theory, mathematical statistics and graph theory, along with some provisions of decision-making theory and multi-criteria analysis. This book helps as a good guide for those involved in aviation risk assessment and air traffic management.
The Risk Management of Contingent Convertible (SpringerBriefs in Finance)
by Jan De Spiegeleer Ine Marquet Wim Schoutens<p>This book provides an overview of the risk components of CoCo bonds. CoCos are hybrid financial instruments that convert into equity or suffer a write-down of the face value upon the appearance of a trigger event. The loss-absorption mechanism is automatically enforced either via the breaching of a particular accounting ratio, typically in terms of the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, or via a regulatory trigger. <p>CoCos are non-standardised instruments with different loss-absorption and trigger mechanisms. They might also contain additional features such as the cancellation of coupon payments. <p>Different pricing models are discussed in detail. These models use market data such as share prices, CDS levels and implied volatility in order to calculate the theoretical price of a CoCo bond and its sensitivities, providing the investor with insides to hedge from adverse changes in the market conditions. <p>The audience are professionals as well as academics who want to learn how to risk manage CoCo bonds using cutting edge techniques as well as all the risk involved in CoCo bonds.</p>
Risk Management Technologies
by E. D. SolozhentsevThis book presents intellectual, innovative, information technologies (I3-technologies) based on logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models. The technologies presented here consider such models for structurally complex systems and processes with logical links and with random events in economics and technology. The volume describes the following components of risk management technologies: LP-calculus; classes of LP-models of risk and efficiency; procedures for different classes; special software for different classes; examples of applications; methods for the estimation of probabilities of events based on expert information. Also described are a variety of training courses in these topics. The classes of risk models treated here are: LP-modeling, LP-classification, LP-efficiency, and LP-forecasting. Particular attention is paid to LP-models of risk of failure to resolve difficult economic and technical problems. Amongst the discussed procedures of I3-technologies are the construction of LP-models, LP-identification of risk models; LP-risk analysis, LP-management and LP-forecasting of risk. The book further considers LP-models of risk of invalidity of systems and processes in accordance with the requirements of ISO 9001-2008, LP-models of bank operational risks in accordance with the requirements of Basel-2, complex risk LP-models for preventing ammunition depot explosions, enterprise electric power supply systems, debugging tests of technical systems, etc. The book also considers LP-models of credit risks, securities portfolios, operational risks in banking, conteraction of bribes and corruption, etc. A number of applications is given to show the effectiveness of risk management technologies. In addition, topics of lectures and practical computer exercises intended for a two-semester course "Risk management technologies" are suggested.
Risk Matrix: Rating Scheme Design and Risk Aggregation (Innovation in Risk Analysis)
by Chunbing Bao Jianping Li Dengsheng WuThis book focuses on discussing the issues of rating scheme design and risk aggregation of risk matrix, which is a popular risk assessment tool in many fields. Although risk matrix is usually treated as qualitative tool, this book conducts the analysis from the quantitative perspective. The discussed content belongs to the scope of risk management, and to be more specific, it is related to quick risk assessment. This book is suitable for the researchers and practitioners related to qualitative or quick risk assessment and highly helps readers understanding how to design more convincing risk assessment tools and do more accurate risk assessment in a uncertain context.
Risk Measures and Attitudes
by Francesca Biagini Harris Schlesinger Andreas RichterRisk has been described in the past by a simple measure, such as the variance, and risk attitude is often considered simply a degree of risk aversion. However, this viewpoint is usually not sufficient. Risk Measures and Attitudes collects contributions which illustrate how modern approaches to both risk measures and risk attitudes are inevitably intertwined. The settings under which this is discussed include portfolio choice, mitigating credit risk and comparing risky alternatives. This book will be a useful study aid for students and researchers of actuarial science or risk management as well as practitioners.
Risk Measures and Insurance Solvency Benchmarks: Fixed-Probability Levels in Renewal Risk Models (Chapman and Hall/CRC Financial Mathematics Series)
by Vsevolod K. MalinovskiiRisk Measures and Insurance Solvency Benchmarks: Fixed-Probability Levels in Renewal Risk Models is written for academics and practitioners who are concerned about potential weaknesses of the Solvency II regulatory system. It is also intended for readers who are interested in pure and applied probability, have a taste for classical and asymptotic analysis, and are motivated to delve into rather intensive calculations. The formal prerequisite for this book is a good background in analysis. The desired prerequisite is some degree of probability training, but someone with knowledge of the classical real-variable theory, including asymptotic methods, will also find this book interesting. For those who find the proofs too complicated, it may be reassuring that most results in this book are formulated in rather elementary terms. This book can also be used as reading material for basic courses in risk measures, insurance mathematics, and applied probability. The material of this book was partly used by the author for his courses in several universities in Moscow, Copenhagen University, and in the University of Montreal. Features Requires only minimal mathematical prerequisites in analysis and probability Suitable for researchers and postgraduate students in related fields Could be used as a supplement to courses in risk measures, insurance mathematics and applied probability.
Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making
by Glenn KollerRisk or uncertainty assessments are used as aids to decision making in nearly every aspect of business, education, and government. As a follow-up to the author's bestselling Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making presents comprehensive examples of risk
Risk Monetization: Converting Threats and Opportunities into Impact on Project Value
by Glenn R. KollerRisk Monetization: Converting Threats and Opportunities into Impact on Project Value addresses the organizational, political, cultural, and technical issues related to implementing a successful risk assessment, management, and monetization process. Suitable for readers in any organization or area of expertise, the book assumes no prior background i
Risk Parity Fundamentals
by Edward E. QianWritten by an experienced researcher and portfolio manager who coined the term "risk parity," this book provides readers with a practical understanding of the risk parity investment approach. It uses fundamental, quantitative, and historical analysis to address the merit of risk parity as well as the practical and underlying aspects of risk parity investing. Requiring no advanced degrees in quantitative fields, the book analyzes risk parity performance from historical periods and more recent market environments.
Risk-Return Relationship and Portfolio Management (India Studies in Business and Economics)
by Raj S. DhankarThis book covers all aspects of modern finance relating to portfolio theory and risk–return relationship, offering a comprehensive guide to the importance, measurement and application of the risk–return hypothesis in portfolio management. It is divided into five parts: Part I discusses the valuation of capital assets and presents various techniques and models used in this context. Part II then addresses market efficiency and capital market models, particularly focusing on measuring market efficiency, which is a crucial factor in making correct investment decisions. It also analyzes the major capital market models like CAPM and APT to determine to what extent they are suitable for use in developing economies. Part III highlights the significance of risk–return analysis as a prerequisite for investment decisions, while Part IV examines the selection and performance appraisals of portfolios against the backdrop of the risk–return relationship. It also examines new tools such as the value-at-risk application for mutual funds and the applications of the price-to-earnings ratio in portfolio performance measurement. Lastly, Part V explores contemporary issues in finance, including the relevance of Islamic finance in the increasingly volatile global financial system.
Risk Savvy
by Gerd GigerenzerAn eye-opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions with our money, health, and personal livesIn the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information.In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer reveals that most of us, including doctors, lawyers, financial advisers, and elected officials, misunderstand statistics much more often than we think, leaving us not only misinformed, but vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there is hope. Anyone can learn to make better decisions for their health, finances, family, and business without needing to consult an expert or a super computer, and Gigerenzer shows us how.Risk Savvy is an insightful and easy-to-understand remedy to our collective information overload and an essential guide to making smart, confident decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Risk Savvy
by Gerd GigerenzerAn eye-opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions with our money, health, and personal lives In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer reveals that most of us, including doctors, lawyers, financial advisers, and elected officials, misunderstand statistics much more often than we think, leaving us not only misinformed, but vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there is hope. Anyone can learn to make better decisions for their health, finances, family, and business without needing to consult an expert or a super computer, and Gigerenzer shows us how. Risk Savvy is an insightful and easy-to-understand remedy to our collective information overload and an essential guide to making smart, confident decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Risk Theory: Rational Decision in the Face of Chance, Uncertainty, and Risk (SpringerBriefs in Philosophy)
by Nicholas RescherApart from its foray into technical issues of risk assessment and management, this book has one principal aim. With situations of chancy outcomes certain key factors—including outcome possibilities, overall expectation, threat, and even luck—are measurable parameters. But risk is something different: it is not measurable a single parametric quantity, but a many-sided factor that has several different components, and constitutes a complex phenomenon that must be assessed judgmentally in a highly contextualized way. This book explains and analyzes how this works out in practice.Topics in this work include choice and risk, chance and likelihood, as well as outcome-yield evaluation and risk. It takes into account abnormal situations and eccentric measurements, situational evaluation and expectation and scrutinizes the social aspect of risk. The book is of interest to logicians, philosophers of mathematics, and researchers of risk assessment. The project is a companion piece to the author's LUCK THEORY, also published by Springer.
Risk Theory (Springer Actuarial)
by Hanspeter SchmidliThis book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.
A Risky Business: An Actuary’s Guide to Quantifying and Managing Risk in Society
by Catrin TownsendIntangible, invisible and worth trillions, risk is everywhere. Its quantification and management are key to the success and failure of individuals, businesses and governments. Whether you’re an interested observer or pursuing a career in risk, this book delves into the complex and multi-faceted work that actuaries undertake to quantify, manage and commodify risk—supporting our society and servicing a range of multi-billion-dollar industries. Starting at the most basic level, this book introduces key concepts in actuarial science, insurance and pensions. Through case studies, explanations and mathematical examples, it fosters an understanding of current industry practice. This book celebrates the long history of actuarial science and poses the problems facing actuaries in the future, exploring complex global risks including climate change, aging populations, healthcare models and pandemic epidemiology from an actuarial perspective. It gives practical advice for new and potential actuaries on how to identify an area of work to go into, how best to navigate (and pass!) actuarial exams and how to develop your skills post-qualification. A Risky Business illuminates how actuaries are central to society as we know it, revealing what they do and how they do it. It is the essential primer on actuarial science.
RNA-seq Data Analysis: A Practical Approach (Chapman & Hall/CRC Computational Biology Series)
by Eija Korpelainen Jarno Tuimala Panu Somervuo Mikael Huss Garry WongThe State of the Art in Transcriptome AnalysisRNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data offers unprecedented information about the transcriptome, but harnessing this information with bioinformatics tools is typically a bottleneck. RNA-seq Data Analysis: A Practical Approach enables researchers to examine differential expression at gene, exon, and transcript le
RNA Bioinformatics
by Ernesto PicardiThis volume provides an overview of RNA bioinformatics methodologies, including basic strategies to predict secondary and tertiary structures, and novel algorithms based on massive RNA sequencing. Interest in RNA bioinformatics has rapidly increased thanks to the recent high-throughput sequencing technologies allowing scientists to investigate complete transcriptomes at single nucleotide resolution. Adopting advanced computational technics, scientists are now able to conduct more in-depth studies and present them to you in this book. Written in the highly successful Methods of Molecular Biology series format, chapters include introductions to their respective topics, lists of the necessary materials and equipment, step-by-step, readily reproducible bioinformatics protocols, and key tips to avoid known pitfalls. Authoritative and practical, RNA Bioinformatics seeks to aid scientists in the further study of bioinformatics and computational biology of RNA.
RNA Sequence, Structure, and Function: Computational and Bioinformatic Methods
by Jan Gorodkin Walter L. RuzzoThe existence of genes for RNA molecules not coding for proteins (ncRNAs) has been recognized since the 1950's, but until recently, aside from the critically important ribosomal and transfer RNA genes, most focus has been on protein coding genes. However, a long series of striking discoveries, from RNA's ability to carry out catalytic function, to discovery of riboswitches, microRNAs and other ribo-regulators performing critical tasks in essentially all living organisms, has created a burgeoning interest in this primordial component of the biosphere. However, the structural characteristics and evolutionary constraints on RNA molecules are very different from those of proteins, necessitating development of a completely new suite of informatic tools to address these challenges. In RNA Sequence, Structure, Function: Computational and Bioinformatic Methods, expert researchers in the field describe a substantial and relevant fraction of these methodologies from both practical and computational/algorithmic perspectives. Focusing on both of these directions addresses both the biologist interested in knowing more about RNA bioinformatics as well as the bioinformaticist interested in more detailed aspects of the algorithms. Written in the highly successful Methods in Molecular Biology series format, the chapters include the kind of detailed description and implementation advice that is crucial for getting optimal results. Thorough and intuitive, RNA Sequence, Structure, Function: Computational and Bioinformatic Methods aids scientists in continuing to study key methods and principles of RNA bioinformatics.
The Road to Einstein's Relativity: Following in the Footsteps of the Giants
by David LythCHOICE Highly Recommended Title, August 2019 <P><P>Expertly guided by renowned cosmologist Dr. David Lyth, learn about the pioneering scientists whose work provided the foundation for Einstein’s formulation of his theories of relativity, and about Einstein's groundbreaking life and work as well. <P><P>This highly readable and accessible panorama of the field delicately balances history and science as it takes the reader on an adventure through the centuries. Without complex mathematics or scientific formulae, this book will be of interest to all, even those without a scientific background, who are intrigued to find out more about what paved the way for one of our most famous physicists to push the boundaries of physics to new lengths. <P><P>Features: <li>Written by an internationally renowned physicist and cosmologist <li>Describes the life and times of Einstein and his important predecessors <li>Focuses on one of the most famous areas of science, Einstein’s Relativity Theory