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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto #1)
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb"[Taleb is] Wall Street's principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church."-Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker. Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world. This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill--the world of business. Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives.
Fools Rush Inn: More Detours on the Way to Conventional Wisdom
by Bill JamesIn this second collection of recent articles (the first was Solid Fool's Gold), groundbreaking sabermetrician and baseball historian Bill James takes his unique way of looking at the world and applies it to topics as diverse as the major league players who went out on top, whether ground ball pitchers are as good (or as bad) as people think, do hitters like Yasiel Puig have hot hand streaks (they do) and why (that's a different question), and do teams have tough stretches and soft patches in their schedules (they do) and how to mention them. Along the way, James takes several detours to discuss his views on classical music, fiction versus non-fiction, keeping will animals in captivity, conservatives and liberals, and several other things that interest or offend him. He even includes a couple of his favorite old baseball stories and a new way to summarize something's or someone's history in exactly 10-25-50-100-200-500 words.
Football Analytics with Python & R: Learning Data Science Through the Lens of Sports
by Eric A. Eager Richard A. EricksonBaseball is not the only sport to use "moneyball." American football fans, teams, and gamblers are increasingly using data to gain an edge against the competition. Professional and college teams use data to help select players and identify team needs. Fans use data to guide fantasy team picks and strategies. Sports bettors and fantasy football players are using data to help inform decision making. This concise book provides a clear introduction to using statistical models to analyze football data.Whether your goal is to produce a winning team, dominate your fantasy football league, qualify for an entry-level football analyst position, or simply learn R and Python using fun example cases, this book is your starting place. You'll learn how to:Apply basic statistical concepts to football datasetsDescribe football data with quantitative methodsCreate efficient workflows that offer reproducible resultsUse data science skills such as web scraping, manipulating data, and plotting dataImplement statistical models for football dataLink data summaries and model outputs to create reports or presentations using tools such as R Markdown and R ShinyAnd more
Football and Health Improvement: an Emergent Field (Sport in the Global Society – Contemporary Perspectives)
by Daniel Parnell Andy PringleThere is developing interest in the use of sporting settings as a channel to connect people to health improvement services and an emerging body of research highlights football as being associated with positive motivational and social elements that support the maintenance of a physically active lifestyle. This text provides insights into a range of issues surrounding the role of football as a vehicle for health improvement for different groups.The contributors to this volume share some of the challenges and the benefits of using professional football settings as a channel for connecting people to health improvement opportunities. These chapters will be of interest to a range of stakeholders involved in research, policy and practice who stand to benefit from building partnerships with colleagues with expertise in (I) conducting evaluation and (II) reporting evaluation and research outcomes in peer-reviewed mediums, reflecting the value of partnerships between football-led health improvement and evaluators. This book was previously published as a special issue of Soccer & Society.
For Better or For Worse? Collaborative Couples in the Sciences
by Annette Lykknes Donald L. Opitz Brigitte Van TiggelenIn this volume, a distinguished set of international scholars examine the nature of collaboration between life partners in the sciences, with particular attention to the ways in which personal and professional dynamics can foster or inhibit scientific practice. Breaking from traditional gender analyses which focus on divisions of labor and the assignment of credit, the studies scrutinize collaboration as a variable process between partners living in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries who were married and divorced, heterosexual and homosexual, aristocratic and working-class and politically right and left. The contributors analyze cases shaped by their particular geographical locations, ranging from retreat settings like the English countryside and Woods Hole, Massachusetts, to university laboratories and urban centers in Berlin, Stockholm, Geneva and London. The volume demonstrates how the terms and meanings of collaboration, variably shaped by disciplinary imperatives, cultural mores, and the agency of the collaborators themselves, illuminate critical intellectual and institutional developments in the modern sciences.
Forbidden Configurations in Discrete Geometry
by David EppsteinThis book surveys the mathematical and computational properties of finite sets of points in the plane, covering recent breakthroughs on important problems in discrete geometry, and listing many open problems. It unifies these mathematical and computational views using forbidden configurations, which are patterns that cannot appear in sets with a given property, and explores the implications of this unified view.<P><P> Written with minimal prerequisites and featuring plenty of figures, this engaging book will be of interest to undergraduate students and researchers in mathematics and computer science. Most topics are introduced with a related puzzle or brain-teaser. The topics range from abstract issues of collinearity, convexity, and general position to more applied areas including robust statistical estimation and network visualization, with connections to related areas of mathematics including number theory, graph theory, and the theory of permutation patterns. Pseudocode is included for many algorithms that compute properties of point sets.<P> Proposes a unified view of problems in discrete geometry, helping readers understand the connections and commonalities between problems in the area.<P> Combines mathematical and computational views of the subject, and pseudocode for numerous algorithms, providing a readable introduction for computer science and mathematics students.<P> The book is accessible and motivating, featuring both recreational puzzles along with recent breakthroughs and open problems.
Forced Migration & Mortality
by National Research CouncilPapers from a November 1999 workshop on mortality patterns in complex emergencies, organized by the Roundtable on the Demography of Forced Migration, and held in Washington, D. C. , overview the state of knowledge about mortality in past complex humanitarian emergencies. Case studies on Rwanda, North Korea, and Kosovo, commissioned for the workshop, and on Cambodia, added after the workshop, reflect on emergencies involving forced migration. Other regions discussed include China, Bosnia, Sierra Leone, and Afghanistan. Annotation c. Book News, Inc. , Portland, OR (booknews. com)
Forced Oscillations of Multidimensional Highly Nonlinear Systems: Deterministic Chaos and Random Changes in Parameters (Advanced Structured Materials #222)
by Vladimir Metrikin Igumnov LeonidThis book highlights the presentation of methods for studying oscillations under external periodic influence and random changes in parameters in dynamic systems with nonlinearities that have discontinuities and kinks. The analysis of dynamic systems is based on effective approaches and algorithms of the method of point mappings of Poincaré surfaces, developed by the Nizhny Novgorod Scientific School of academician A.A. Andronov. Considerable attention is paid to the study of the general picture of the possible behavior of systems and their use in solving various applied problems. Using specific examples, it is found that this research approach allows not only to advance in the study of known nonlinear features but also to discover new effects and applications. The presentation is illustrated by numerous specific examples of oscillatory strongly nonlinear systems with discontinuous nonlinearities or piecewise-continuous nonlinearities. A separate chapter is devoted to the development and use of the point mapping method for random changes in the parameters of dynamic systems, as well as in dynamic systems subject to external seismic loads. The book is intended for scientists and engineers who are engaged in research and practice activities related to the theory of nonlinear oscillations and its applications, as well as graduate students and senior undergraduate students in relevant majors.
Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View
by Arkadiusz Wisniowski Jakub BijakInternational migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet: Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using Meta's advanced forecasting tool, 2nd Edition
by Greg RaffertyCreate and improve fully automated forecasts for time series data with strong seasonal effects, holidays, and additional regressors using PythonPurchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free PDF eBookKey FeaturesExplore Prophet, the open source forecasting tool developed at Meta, to improve your forecastsCreate a forecast and run diagnostics to understand forecast qualityFine-tune models to achieve high performance and report this performance with concrete statisticsBook DescriptionProphet empowers Python and R developers to build scalable time series forecasts. This book will help you to implement Prophet's cutting-edge forecasting techniques to model future data with high accuracy using only a few lines of code.You'll begin by exploring the evolution of time series forecasting, from basic early models to present-day advanced models. After the initial installation and setup, you'll take a deep dive into the mathematics and theory behind Prophet. You'll then cover advanced features such as visualizing your forecasts, adding holidays and trend changepoints, and handling outliers. You'll use the Fourier series to model seasonality, learn how to choose between an additive and multiplicative model, and understand when to modify each model parameter. This updated edition has a new section on modeling shocks such as COVID. Later on in the book you'll see how to optimize more complicated models with hyperparameter tuning and by adding additional regressors to the model. Finally, you'll learn how to run diagnostics to evaluate the performance of your models and discover useful features when running Prophet in production environments.By the end of this book, you'll be able to take a raw time series dataset and build advanced and accurate forecasting models with concise, understandable, and repeatable code.What you will learnUnderstand the mathematics behind Prophet's modelsBuild practical forecasting models from real datasets using PythonUnderstand the different modes of growth that time series often exhibitDiscover how to identify and deal with outliers in time series dataFind out how to control uncertainty intervals to provide percent confidence in your forecastsProductionalize your Prophet models to scale your work faster and more efficientlyWho this book is forThis book is for business managers, data scientists, data analysts, machine learning engineers, and software engineers who want to build time-series forecasts in Python or R. To get the most out of this book, you should have a basic understanding of time series data and be able to differentiate it from other types of data. Basic knowledge of forecasting techniques is a plus.
Forecasting With The Theta Method: Theory and Applications
by Dimitrios D. Thomakos Kostas I. NikolopoulosThe first book to be published on the Theta method, outlining under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods This book is the first to detail the Theta method of forecasting – one of the most difficult-to-beat forecasting benchmarks, which topped the biggest forecasting competition in the world in 2000: the M3 competition. Written by two of the leading experts in the forecasting field, it illuminates the exact replication of the method and under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods. Recent developments such as multivariate models are also included, as are a series of practical applications in finance, economics, and healthcare. The book also offers practical tools in MS Excel and guidance, as well as provisional access, for the use of R source code and respective packages. Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications includes three main parts. The first part, titled Theory, Methods, Models & Applications details the new theory about the method. The second part, Applications & Performance in Forecasting Competitions, describes empirical results and simulations on the method. The last part roadmaps future research and also include contributions from another leading scholar of the method – Dr. Fotios Petropoulos. First ever book to be published on the Theta Method Explores new theory and exact conditions under which methods would outperform most forecasting benchmarks Clearly written with practical applications Employs R – open source code with all included implementations Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications is a valuable tool for both academics and practitioners involved in forecasting and respective software development.
Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM)
by Ivan SvetunkovForecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM) focuses on a time series model in Single Source of Error state space form, called “ADAM” (Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model). The book demonstrates a holistic view to forecasting and time series analysis using dynamic models, explaining how a variety of instruments can be used to solve real life problems. At the moment, there is no other tool in R or Python that would be able to model both intermittent and regular demand, would support both ETS and ARIMA, work with explanatory variables, be able to deal with multiple seasonalities (e.g. for hourly demand data) and have a support for automatic selection of orders, components and variables and provide tools for diagnostics and further improvement of the estimated model. ADAM can do all of that in one and the same framework. Given the rising interest in forecasting, ADAM, being able to do all those things, is a useful tool for data scientists, business analysts and machine learning experts who work with time series, as well as any researchers working in the area of dynamic models. Key Features: • It covers basics of forecasting, • It discusses ETS and ARIMA models, • It has chapters on extensions of ETS and ARIMA, including how to use explanatory variables and how to capture multiple frequencies, • It discusses intermittent demand and scale models for ETS, ARIMA and regression, • It covers diagnostics tools for ADAM and how to produce forecasts with it, • It does all of that with examples in R.
Forecasting and Assessing Risk of Individual Electricity Peaks (Mathematics of Planet Earth)
by Maria Jacob Cláudia Neves Danica Vukadinović GreethamThe overarching aim of this open access book is to present self-contained theory and algorithms for investigation and prediction of electric demand peaks. A cross-section of popular demand forecasting algorithms from statistics, machine learning and mathematics is presented, followed by extreme value theory techniques with examples.In order to achieve carbon targets, good forecasts of peaks are essential. For instance, shifting demand or charging battery depends on correct demand predictions in time. Majority of forecasting algorithms historically were focused on average load prediction. In order to model the peaks, methods from extreme value theory are applied. This allows us to study extremes without making any assumption on the central parts of demand distribution and to predict beyond the range of available data. While applied on individual loads, the techniques described in this book can be extended naturally to substations, or to commercial settings. Extreme value theory techniques presented can be also used across other disciplines, for example for predicting heavy rainfalls, wind speed, solar radiation and extreme weather events. The book is intended for students, academics, engineers and professionals that are interested in short term load prediction, energy data analytics, battery control, demand side response and data science in general.
Forecasting from Multi-equation Econometric Micromodels (Contributions to Economics)
by Jerzy Witold WiśniewskiForecasting from multi-equation models has very rarely been the focus in econometric literature. In response, this book presents a range of methodologies to approach this complex field and offers readers essential information on forecasting from multi-equation econometric micromodels.In the twentieth century, significant interest in econometric macromodels emerged. These multi-equation models are mostly systems of interdependent equations, most often used to describe the national economies of various countries. The book analyzes econometric forecasting procedures and illustrates them with empirical examples that are based on real economic (mostly business-derived) data. The procedure of forecast building from systems of interdependent equations is presented for two categories of econometric models: models with a feedback effect and models with closed-loop links between interdependent variables. The forecasts obtained via this technique are compared with the results derived from reduced-form equations of the respective econometric model. The author also generalizes the rules of the reduced-recursive (helical, iterative) procedure application, against the backdrop of the proposed method of forecast building from reduced-form equations of systems of interdependent equations. Given its scope, the book will appeal not only to PhD students and researchers, but also undergraduate students and academics in general.
Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets
by William S. MalliosA guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current eventsAddressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods.Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including:Higher order ARMA processes in financial marketsThe effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling marketsCointegrated time series with model driftModeling volatilityThroughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic.Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.
Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter
by Andrew C. HarveyIn this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.
Forest, Field, and Fallow: Selections by William M. Denevan
by Kent Mathewson Antoinette M. G. A. WinklerPrinsThis volume aims to present the essential work of geographer and historical ecologist William M. Denevan to explain the impact and influence his thinking had on the conceptual advancement not only in his own discipline, but in a range of related disciplines such as anthropology, archaeology, and environmental history. The book is organized around eight themes, demonstrating Denevan’s early and profound insights on topics that remain of current relevance today, and the scholarly impact his writing had on subsequent scholarship. The book is unique because it offers commentary from active scholars who address the impacts of Prof. Denevan's thinking and work on contemporary environmental and ecological issues, with a focus on several groundbreaking themes (e.g. historical demography, agricultural landforms, cultural plant geography, human environmental impacts, indigenous agro-ecology, tropical agriculture, livestock and landscape, and synthetic contributions). This book will be of interest to a range of scholars in geography, anthropology, archaeology, history, and ecology, as well as to environmental managers and practitioners, especially those working for non-profit organizations and government organizations tasked with finding ways to adapt to global environmental change.
Form Symmetries and Reduction of Order in Difference Equations (Advances in Discrete Mathematics and Applications)
by Hassan SedaghatForm Symmetries and Reduction of Order in Difference Equations presents a new approach to the formulation and analysis of difference equations in which the underlying space is typically an algebraic group. In some problems and applications, an additional algebraic or topological structure is assumed in order to define equations and obtain significa
Form und Vergegenwärtigung: Funktionalistische Studien zur Organisation des Sterbens zu Hause
by Anna BauerDas eigene Zuhause gilt vielen nach wie vor als der ›ideale‹ Sterbeort. In mehreren Fallstudien zeigt der vorliegende Band am Beispiel der spezialisierten ambulanten Palliativversorgung (SAPV), wie das Sterben zu Hause in organisierte Formen übersetzt und professionell begleitet bzw. versorgt wird. Die Ergebnisse der Fallstudien zeigen, wie zwischen vielfältigen und zum Teil auch widersprüchlichen professionellen Anforderungen, aber auch den Erwartungen von Patient:innen und Angehörigen vermittelt werden kann. Durch die Analyse der beruflichen Perspektiven von Palliativärzt:innen und Palliative Care Fachkräften wird ersichtlich, wie die sich in Folge von Ausdifferenzierung und Spezialisierung immer weiter verselbstständigende medizinische und pflegerische Expertise im privaten Raum gegenüber einem ›Laienpublikum‹ aus Patient:innen und Angehörigen bewähren kann. Es wird beispielhaft am Thema der Palliativversorgung zu Hause aufgezeigt, wie die ›Produkte‹ eines Prozesses der funktionalen Differenzierung gesellschaftlich anschlussfähig werden.
Formal Analysis by Abstract Interpretation: Case Studies in Modern Protocols (SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology)
by Benjamin AzizThe book provides a gentle introduction and definition of the denotational-based abstract interpretation method. The book demonstrates how the above method of formal analysis can be used, not only to address the security of systems, but other more general and interesting properties related to the testing, mutating and semantic ambiguity resolution of protocols. The book presents three case studies, all related to current complex protocols and standards used in industry, particularly in the context of IoT and Industry 4.0.
Formal Aspects of Component Software: 16th International Conference, FACS 2019, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, October 23–25, 2019, Proceedings (Lecture Notes in Computer Science #12018)
by Farhad Arbab Sung-Shik JongmansThis book constitutes the thoroughly revised selected papers from the 16th International Conference on Formal Aspects of Component Software, FACS 2019, held in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, in October 2019.The 9 full papers presented together with 9 full papers and 3 short papers as well as 2 other papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 27 submissions. FACS 2019 is concerned with how formal methods can be used to make component-based and service-oriented software development succeed. Formal methods have provided a foundation for component-based software by successfully addressing challenging issues such as mathematical models for components, composition and adaptation, or rigorous approaches to verification, deployment, testing, and certification.
Formal Aspects of Component Software: 18th International Conference, FACS 2022, Virtual Event, November 10–11, 2022, Proceedings (Lecture Notes in Computer Science #13712)
by José Proença Silvia Lizeth Tapia TarifaThis book constitutes the thoroughly revised selected papers from the 18th International Symposium, FACS 2022, which was held online in November 2022.The 12 full papers and 1 short paper were carefully reviewed and selected from 25 submissions. FACS 2021 is focusing on the areas of component software and formal methods in order to promote a deeper understanding of how formal methods can or should be used to make component-based software development succeed.
Formal Aspects of Component Software: 19th International Conference, FACS 2023, Virtual Event, October 19-20, 2023, Revised Selected Papers (Lecture Notes in Computer Science #14485)
by Sung-Shik Jongmans Javier CámaraThis book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Formal Aspects of Component Software, FACS 2023, which took place virtually during October 19-20, 2023.The 11 full papers included in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 23 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: cloud computing, cyber-physical and critical systems, and the Internet of Things.
Formal Concept Analysis
by Jaume Baixeries Christian Sacarea Manuel Ojeda-AciegoThis book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Formal Concept Analysis, ICFCA 2015, held in Neja, Spain, in June 2015. The 16 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 38 submissions. The topics in this volume cover theoretical aspects of FCA; methods and applications of FCA to different fields and enhanced FCA that show new trends in FCA, for instance, pattern structures of fuzzy FCA.
Formal Concept Analysis of Social Networks (Lecture Notes in Social Networks)
by Rokia Missaoui Sergei O. Kuznetsov Sergei ObiedkovThe book studies the existing and potential connections between Social Network Analysis (SNA) and Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) by showing how standard SNA techniques, usually based on graph theory, can be supplemented by FCA methods, which rely on lattice theory. The book presents contributions to the following areas: acquisition of terminological knowledge from social networks, knowledge communities, individuality computation, other types of FCA-based analysis of bipartite graphs (two-mode networks), multimodal clustering, community detection and description in one-mode and multi-mode networks, adaptation of the dual-projection approach to weighted bipartite graphs, extensions to the Kleinberg's HITS algorithm as well as attributed graph analysis.