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Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View
by Arkadiusz Wisniowski Jakub BijakInternational migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet: Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using Meta's advanced forecasting tool, 2nd Edition
by Greg RaffertyCreate and improve fully automated forecasts for time series data with strong seasonal effects, holidays, and additional regressors using PythonPurchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free PDF eBookKey FeaturesExplore Prophet, the open source forecasting tool developed at Meta, to improve your forecastsCreate a forecast and run diagnostics to understand forecast qualityFine-tune models to achieve high performance and report this performance with concrete statisticsBook DescriptionProphet empowers Python and R developers to build scalable time series forecasts. This book will help you to implement Prophet's cutting-edge forecasting techniques to model future data with high accuracy using only a few lines of code.You'll begin by exploring the evolution of time series forecasting, from basic early models to present-day advanced models. After the initial installation and setup, you'll take a deep dive into the mathematics and theory behind Prophet. You'll then cover advanced features such as visualizing your forecasts, adding holidays and trend changepoints, and handling outliers. You'll use the Fourier series to model seasonality, learn how to choose between an additive and multiplicative model, and understand when to modify each model parameter. This updated edition has a new section on modeling shocks such as COVID. Later on in the book you'll see how to optimize more complicated models with hyperparameter tuning and by adding additional regressors to the model. Finally, you'll learn how to run diagnostics to evaluate the performance of your models and discover useful features when running Prophet in production environments.By the end of this book, you'll be able to take a raw time series dataset and build advanced and accurate forecasting models with concise, understandable, and repeatable code.What you will learnUnderstand the mathematics behind Prophet's modelsBuild practical forecasting models from real datasets using PythonUnderstand the different modes of growth that time series often exhibitDiscover how to identify and deal with outliers in time series dataFind out how to control uncertainty intervals to provide percent confidence in your forecastsProductionalize your Prophet models to scale your work faster and more efficientlyWho this book is forThis book is for business managers, data scientists, data analysts, machine learning engineers, and software engineers who want to build time-series forecasts in Python or R. To get the most out of this book, you should have a basic understanding of time series data and be able to differentiate it from other types of data. Basic knowledge of forecasting techniques is a plus.
Forecasting With The Theta Method: Theory and Applications
by Dimitrios D. Thomakos Kostas I. NikolopoulosThe first book to be published on the Theta method, outlining under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods This book is the first to detail the Theta method of forecasting – one of the most difficult-to-beat forecasting benchmarks, which topped the biggest forecasting competition in the world in 2000: the M3 competition. Written by two of the leading experts in the forecasting field, it illuminates the exact replication of the method and under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods. Recent developments such as multivariate models are also included, as are a series of practical applications in finance, economics, and healthcare. The book also offers practical tools in MS Excel and guidance, as well as provisional access, for the use of R source code and respective packages. Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications includes three main parts. The first part, titled Theory, Methods, Models & Applications details the new theory about the method. The second part, Applications & Performance in Forecasting Competitions, describes empirical results and simulations on the method. The last part roadmaps future research and also include contributions from another leading scholar of the method – Dr. Fotios Petropoulos. First ever book to be published on the Theta Method Explores new theory and exact conditions under which methods would outperform most forecasting benchmarks Clearly written with practical applications Employs R – open source code with all included implementations Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications is a valuable tool for both academics and practitioners involved in forecasting and respective software development.
Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM)
by Ivan SvetunkovForecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM) focuses on a time series model in Single Source of Error state space form, called “ADAM” (Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model). The book demonstrates a holistic view to forecasting and time series analysis using dynamic models, explaining how a variety of instruments can be used to solve real life problems. At the moment, there is no other tool in R or Python that would be able to model both intermittent and regular demand, would support both ETS and ARIMA, work with explanatory variables, be able to deal with multiple seasonalities (e.g. for hourly demand data) and have a support for automatic selection of orders, components and variables and provide tools for diagnostics and further improvement of the estimated model. ADAM can do all of that in one and the same framework. Given the rising interest in forecasting, ADAM, being able to do all those things, is a useful tool for data scientists, business analysts and machine learning experts who work with time series, as well as any researchers working in the area of dynamic models. Key Features: • It covers basics of forecasting, • It discusses ETS and ARIMA models, • It has chapters on extensions of ETS and ARIMA, including how to use explanatory variables and how to capture multiple frequencies, • It discusses intermittent demand and scale models for ETS, ARIMA and regression, • It covers diagnostics tools for ADAM and how to produce forecasts with it, • It does all of that with examples in R.
Forecasting and Assessing Risk of Individual Electricity Peaks (Mathematics of Planet Earth)
by Maria Jacob Cláudia Neves Danica Vukadinović GreethamThe overarching aim of this open access book is to present self-contained theory and algorithms for investigation and prediction of electric demand peaks. A cross-section of popular demand forecasting algorithms from statistics, machine learning and mathematics is presented, followed by extreme value theory techniques with examples.In order to achieve carbon targets, good forecasts of peaks are essential. For instance, shifting demand or charging battery depends on correct demand predictions in time. Majority of forecasting algorithms historically were focused on average load prediction. In order to model the peaks, methods from extreme value theory are applied. This allows us to study extremes without making any assumption on the central parts of demand distribution and to predict beyond the range of available data. While applied on individual loads, the techniques described in this book can be extended naturally to substations, or to commercial settings. Extreme value theory techniques presented can be also used across other disciplines, for example for predicting heavy rainfalls, wind speed, solar radiation and extreme weather events. The book is intended for students, academics, engineers and professionals that are interested in short term load prediction, energy data analytics, battery control, demand side response and data science in general.
Forecasting from Multi-equation Econometric Micromodels (Contributions to Economics)
by Jerzy Witold WiśniewskiForecasting from multi-equation models has very rarely been the focus in econometric literature. In response, this book presents a range of methodologies to approach this complex field and offers readers essential information on forecasting from multi-equation econometric micromodels.In the twentieth century, significant interest in econometric macromodels emerged. These multi-equation models are mostly systems of interdependent equations, most often used to describe the national economies of various countries. The book analyzes econometric forecasting procedures and illustrates them with empirical examples that are based on real economic (mostly business-derived) data. The procedure of forecast building from systems of interdependent equations is presented for two categories of econometric models: models with a feedback effect and models with closed-loop links between interdependent variables. The forecasts obtained via this technique are compared with the results derived from reduced-form equations of the respective econometric model. The author also generalizes the rules of the reduced-recursive (helical, iterative) procedure application, against the backdrop of the proposed method of forecast building from reduced-form equations of systems of interdependent equations. Given its scope, the book will appeal not only to PhD students and researchers, but also undergraduate students and academics in general.
Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets
by William S. MalliosA guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current eventsAddressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods.Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including:Higher order ARMA processes in financial marketsThe effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling marketsCointegrated time series with model driftModeling volatilityThroughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic.Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.
Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter
by Andrew C. HarveyIn this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.
Forest, Field, and Fallow: Selections by William M. Denevan
by Kent Mathewson Antoinette M. G. A. WinklerPrinsThis volume aims to present the essential work of geographer and historical ecologist William M. Denevan to explain the impact and influence his thinking had on the conceptual advancement not only in his own discipline, but in a range of related disciplines such as anthropology, archaeology, and environmental history. The book is organized around eight themes, demonstrating Denevan’s early and profound insights on topics that remain of current relevance today, and the scholarly impact his writing had on subsequent scholarship. The book is unique because it offers commentary from active scholars who address the impacts of Prof. Denevan's thinking and work on contemporary environmental and ecological issues, with a focus on several groundbreaking themes (e.g. historical demography, agricultural landforms, cultural plant geography, human environmental impacts, indigenous agro-ecology, tropical agriculture, livestock and landscape, and synthetic contributions). This book will be of interest to a range of scholars in geography, anthropology, archaeology, history, and ecology, as well as to environmental managers and practitioners, especially those working for non-profit organizations and government organizations tasked with finding ways to adapt to global environmental change.
Form Symmetries and Reduction of Order in Difference Equations (Advances in Discrete Mathematics and Applications)
by Hassan SedaghatForm Symmetries and Reduction of Order in Difference Equations presents a new approach to the formulation and analysis of difference equations in which the underlying space is typically an algebraic group. In some problems and applications, an additional algebraic or topological structure is assumed in order to define equations and obtain significa
Form und Vergegenwärtigung: Funktionalistische Studien zur Organisation des Sterbens zu Hause
by Anna BauerDas eigene Zuhause gilt vielen nach wie vor als der ›ideale‹ Sterbeort. In mehreren Fallstudien zeigt der vorliegende Band am Beispiel der spezialisierten ambulanten Palliativversorgung (SAPV), wie das Sterben zu Hause in organisierte Formen übersetzt und professionell begleitet bzw. versorgt wird. Die Ergebnisse der Fallstudien zeigen, wie zwischen vielfältigen und zum Teil auch widersprüchlichen professionellen Anforderungen, aber auch den Erwartungen von Patient:innen und Angehörigen vermittelt werden kann. Durch die Analyse der beruflichen Perspektiven von Palliativärzt:innen und Palliative Care Fachkräften wird ersichtlich, wie die sich in Folge von Ausdifferenzierung und Spezialisierung immer weiter verselbstständigende medizinische und pflegerische Expertise im privaten Raum gegenüber einem ›Laienpublikum‹ aus Patient:innen und Angehörigen bewähren kann. Es wird beispielhaft am Thema der Palliativversorgung zu Hause aufgezeigt, wie die ›Produkte‹ eines Prozesses der funktionalen Differenzierung gesellschaftlich anschlussfähig werden.
Formal Analysis by Abstract Interpretation: Case Studies in Modern Protocols (SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology)
by Benjamin AzizThe book provides a gentle introduction and definition of the denotational-based abstract interpretation method. The book demonstrates how the above method of formal analysis can be used, not only to address the security of systems, but other more general and interesting properties related to the testing, mutating and semantic ambiguity resolution of protocols. The book presents three case studies, all related to current complex protocols and standards used in industry, particularly in the context of IoT and Industry 4.0.
Formal Aspects of Component Software: 16th International Conference, FACS 2019, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, October 23–25, 2019, Proceedings (Lecture Notes in Computer Science #12018)
by Farhad Arbab Sung-Shik JongmansThis book constitutes the thoroughly revised selected papers from the 16th International Conference on Formal Aspects of Component Software, FACS 2019, held in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, in October 2019.The 9 full papers presented together with 9 full papers and 3 short papers as well as 2 other papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 27 submissions. FACS 2019 is concerned with how formal methods can be used to make component-based and service-oriented software development succeed. Formal methods have provided a foundation for component-based software by successfully addressing challenging issues such as mathematical models for components, composition and adaptation, or rigorous approaches to verification, deployment, testing, and certification.
Formal Aspects of Component Software: 18th International Conference, FACS 2022, Virtual Event, November 10–11, 2022, Proceedings (Lecture Notes in Computer Science #13712)
by José Proença Silvia Lizeth Tapia TarifaThis book constitutes the thoroughly revised selected papers from the 18th International Symposium, FACS 2022, which was held online in November 2022.The 12 full papers and 1 short paper were carefully reviewed and selected from 25 submissions. FACS 2021 is focusing on the areas of component software and formal methods in order to promote a deeper understanding of how formal methods can or should be used to make component-based software development succeed.
Formal Aspects of Component Software: 19th International Conference, FACS 2023, Virtual Event, October 19-20, 2023, Revised Selected Papers (Lecture Notes in Computer Science #14485)
by Sung-Shik Jongmans Javier CámaraThis book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Formal Aspects of Component Software, FACS 2023, which took place virtually during October 19-20, 2023.The 11 full papers included in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 23 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: cloud computing, cyber-physical and critical systems, and the Internet of Things.
Formal Concept Analysis
by Jaume Baixeries Christian Sacarea Manuel Ojeda-AciegoThis book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Formal Concept Analysis, ICFCA 2015, held in Neja, Spain, in June 2015. The 16 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 38 submissions. The topics in this volume cover theoretical aspects of FCA; methods and applications of FCA to different fields and enhanced FCA that show new trends in FCA, for instance, pattern structures of fuzzy FCA.
Formal Concept Analysis of Social Networks (Lecture Notes in Social Networks)
by Rokia Missaoui Sergei O. Kuznetsov Sergei ObiedkovThe book studies the existing and potential connections between Social Network Analysis (SNA) and Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) by showing how standard SNA techniques, usually based on graph theory, can be supplemented by FCA methods, which rely on lattice theory. The book presents contributions to the following areas: acquisition of terminological knowledge from social networks, knowledge communities, individuality computation, other types of FCA-based analysis of bipartite graphs (two-mode networks), multimodal clustering, community detection and description in one-mode and multi-mode networks, adaptation of the dual-projection approach to weighted bipartite graphs, extensions to the Kleinberg's HITS algorithm as well as attributed graph analysis.
Formal Concept Analysis: 15th International Conference, ICFCA 2019, Frankfurt, Germany, June 25–28, 2019, Proceedings (Lecture Notes in Computer Science #11511)
by Florence Le Ber Diana Cristea Baris SertkayaThis book constitutes the proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Formal Concept Analysis, ICFCA 2019, held in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, in June 2019.The 15 full papers and 5 short papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 36 submissions. The book also contains four invited contributions in full paper length. The field of Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) originated in the 1980s in Darmstadt as a subfield of mathematical order theory, with prior developments in other research groups. Its original motivation was to consider complete lattices as lattices of concepts, drawing motivation from philosophy and mathematics alike. FCA has since then developed into a wide research area with applications much beyond its original motivation, for example in logic, data mining, learning, and psychology.
Formal Grammar 2018: 23rd International Conference, FG 2018, Sofia, Bulgaria, August 11-12, 2018, Proceedings (Lecture Notes in Computer Science #10950)
by Annie Foret Sylvain Pogodalla Greg KobeleEdited in collaboration with FoLLI, the Association of Logic, Language and Information, this book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Formal Grammar, FG 2018, collocated with the European Summer School in Logic, Language and Information in August 2018. The 7 full papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 11 submissions.The focus of papers are as follows: Formal and computational phonology, morphology, syntax, semantics, andpragmatics Model-theoretic and proof-theoretic methods in linguistics Logical aspects of linguistic structure Constraint-based and resource-sensitive approaches to grammar Learnability of formal grammar Integration of stochastic and symbolic models of grammar Foundational, methodological, and architectural issues in grammar and linguistics Mathematical foundations of statistical approaches to linguistic analysis
Formal Grammar: 22nd International Conference, FG 2017, Toulouse, France, July 22-23, 2017, Revised Selected Papers (Lecture Notes in Computer Science #10686)
by Annie Foret Reinhard Muskens Sylvain PogodallaEdited in collaboration with FoLLI, the Association of Logic, Language and Information, this book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Formal Grammar, FG 2017, collocated with the European Summer School in Logic, Language and Information in July 2017. The 9 contributed papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 14 submissions.The focus of papers are as follows: Formal and computational phonology, morphology, syntax, semantics and pragmatics Model-theoretic and proof-theoretic methods in linguistics Logical aspects of linguistic structure Constraint-based and resource-sensitive approaches to grammar Learnability of formal grammar Integration of stochastic and symbolic models of grammar Foundational, methodological and architectural issues in grammar and linguistics Mathematical foundations of statistical approaches to linguistic analysis
Formal Grammar: 24th International Conference, FG 2019, Riga, Latvia, August 11, 2019, Proceedings (Lecture Notes in Computer Science #11668)
by Sylvain Pogodalla Greg Kobele Raffaella BernardiEdited in collaboration with FoLLI, the Association of Logic, Language and Information, this book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Formal Grammar, FG 2019, held in Riga, Latvia, in August 2019, in conjunction with the 31st European Summer School in Logic, Language and Information, ESSLI 2019.The 7 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 11 submissions. They present new and original research on formal grammar, mathematical linguistics, and the application of formal and mathematical methods to the study of natural language and focus on topics such as formal and computational phonology, morphology, syntax, semantics, and pragmatics; model-theoretic and proof-theoretic methods in linguistics; logical aspects of linguistic structure; constraint-based and resource-sensitive approaches to grammar; learnability of formal grammar; integration of stochastic and symbolic models of grammar; foundational, methodological, and architectural issues in grammar and linguistics; and mathematical foundations of statistical approaches to linguistic analysis.
Formal Languages and Compilation
by Stefano Crespi Reghizzi Luca Breveglieri Angelo MorzentiThis revised and expanded new edition elucidates the elegance and simplicity of the fundamental theory underlying formal languages and compilation. Retaining the reader-friendly style of the 1st edition, this versatile textbook describes the essential principles and methods used for defining the syntax of artificial languages, and for designing efficient parsing algorithms and syntax-directed translators with semantic attributes. Features: presents a novel conceptual approach to parsing algorithms that applies to extended BNF grammars, together with a parallel parsing algorithm (NEW); supplies supplementary teaching tools at an associated website; systematically discusses ambiguous forms, allowing readers to avoid pitfalls; describes all algorithms in pseudocode; makes extensive usage of theoretical models of automata, transducers and formal grammars; includes concise coverage of algorithms for processing regular expressions and finite automata; introduces static program analysis based on flow equations.
Formal Languages and Computation: Models and Their Applications
by Alexander MedunaFormal Languages and Computation: Models and Their Applications gives a clear, comprehensive introduction to formal language theory and its applications in computer science. It covers all rudimental topics concerning formal languages and their models, especially grammars and automata, and sketches the basic ideas underlying the theory of computatio
Formal Matrices
by Piotr Krylov Askar TuganbaevThis monograph is a comprehensive account of formal matrices, examining homological properties of modules over formal matrix rings and summarising the interplay between Morita contexts and K theory. While various special types of formal matrix rings have been studied for a long time from several points of view and appear in various textbooks, for instance to examine equivalences of module categories and to illustrate rings with one-sided non-symmetric properties, this particular class of rings has, so far, not been treated systematically. Exploring formal matrix rings of order 2 and introducing the notion of the determinant of a formal matrix over a commutative ring, this monograph further covers the Grothendieck and Whitehead groups of rings. Graduate students and researchers interested in ring theory, module theory and operator algebras will find this book particularly valuable. Containing numerous examples, Formal Matrices is a largely self-contained and accessible introduction to the topic, assuming a solid understanding of basic algebra.
Formal Methods Teaching: 4th International Workshop and Tutorial, FMTea 2021, Virtual Event, November 21, 2021, Proceedings (Lecture Notes in Computer Science #13122)
by João F. Ferreira Alexandra Mendes Claudio MenghiThis book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th International Workshop and Tutorial, FMTea 2021, Held as Part of the 4th World Congress on Formal Methods, FM 2021, as a virtual event in November 2021. The 8 full papers presented together with 2 short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 12 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections named: experiences and proposals related with online FM learning and teaching, integrating/embedding FM teaching/thinking within other computer science courses, teaching FM for industry, and innovative learning and teaching methods for FM.