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Probabilistic-Statistical Methods for Risk Assessment in Civil Aviation (Springer Aerospace Technology)
by Valery Dmitryevich Sharov Vadim Vadimovich Vorobyov Dmitry Alexandrovich ZatuchnyThis book analyses the models for major risks related to flight safety in the aviation sector and presents risk estimation methods through examples of several known aviation enterprises. The book provides a comprehensive content for professionals engaged in the development of flight safety regulatory framework as well as in the design and operation of ground-based or on-board flight support radio electronic systems. The book is also useful for senior students and postgraduates in aviation specialties, especially those related to air traffic management.
Probabilities, Causes and Propensities in Physics
by Mauricio SuárezThis volume defends a novel approach to the philosophy of physics: it is the first book devoted to a comparative study of probability, causality, and propensity, and their various interrelations, within the context of contemporary physics -- particularly quantum and statistical physics. The philosophical debates and distinctions are firmly grounded upon examples from actual physics, thus exemplifying a robustly empiricist approach. The essays, by both prominent scholars in the field and promising young researchers, constitute a pioneer effort in bringing out the connections between probabilistic, causal and dispositional aspects of the quantum domain. The book will appeal to specialists in philosophy and foundations of physics, philosophy of science in general, metaphysics, ontology of physics theories, and philosophy of probability.
Probability
by Robert P. DobrowAn introduction to probability at the undergraduate levelChance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability.With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language clarifies and illustrates key computational and theoretical results.Probability: With Applications and R helps readers develop problem-solving skills and delivers an appropriate mix of theory and application. The book includes:Chapters covering first principles, conditional probability, independent trials, random variables, discrete distributions, continuous probability, continuous distributions, conditional distribution, and limitsAn early introduction to random variables and Monte Carlo simulation and an emphasis on conditional probability, conditioning, and developing probabilistic intuitionAn R tutorial with example script filesMany classic and historical problems of probability as well as nontraditional material, such as Benford's law, power-law distributions, and Bayesian statisticsA topics section with suitable material for projects and explorations, such as random walk on graphs, Markov chains, and Markov chain Monte CarloChapter-by-chapter summaries and hundreds of practical exercisesProbability: With Applications and R is an ideal text for a beginning course in probability at the undergraduate level.
Probability 1
by D. AczelFor thousands of years, it was the visionaries and writers who argued that we cannot be alone-that there is intellegent life in the universe. Now, with the discoveries of the Hubble Telescope, data emerging from Mars, and knowledge about life at the extremes, scientists are taking up where they left off. Amir Aczel, author of Fermat's Last Theorem, pulls together everyting science has discovered, and mixes in proabability theory, to argure the case for the existence of intelligent life beyond this planet. Probability 1 is an extraordinary tour de force in which the author draws on cosmology, math, and biology to tell the rollicking good story of scientists tackling important scientific questions that help answer this fundamental question. What is the probability of intelligent life in the universe? Read this book, and you'll be convinced, by the power of the argument and the excitement of the science.
Probability and Evidence
by Paul HorwichIn this volume, which was originally published in 1982, Paul Horwich presents a clear and unified approach to a number of problems in the philosophy of science. He diagnoses the failure of other attempts to resolve them as stemming from a too-rigid, all-or-nothing conception of belief, and adopts instead a Bayesian strategy, emphasising the degree of confidence to which we are entitled the light of scientific evidence. This probabilistic approach, he argues, yields a more complete understanding of the assumptions and procedures characteristic of scientific reasoning. It also accounts for the merits of simplicity, severe tests and surprising predictions, and provides a way in which the dispute between the realist and instrumentalist views of science might be resolved. The result is a crisp, well-focused contribution to the philosophy of science. The elaboration of an important conception of probability will stimulate anyone with an interest in the field.
Probability and Statistics Applications for Environmental Science
by Stacey J Shaefer Louis TheodoreSimple, clear, and to the point, Probability and Statistics Applications for Environmental Science delineates the fundamentals of statistics, imparting a basic understanding of the theory and mechanics of the calculations. User-friendliness, uncomplicated explanations, and coverage of example applications in the environmental field set this book ap
Probability and Statistics for Particle Physics
by Carlos MañaThis book comprehensively presents the basic concepts of probability and Bayesian inference with sufficient generality to make them applicable to current problems in scientific research. The first chapter provides the fundamentals of probability theory that are essential for the analysis of random phenomena. The second chapter includes a full and pragmatic review of the Bayesian methods that constitute a natural and coherent framework with enough freedom to analyze all the information available from experimental data in a conceptually simple manner. The third chapter presents the basic Monte Carlo techniques used in scientific research, allowing a large variety of problems to be handled difficult to tackle by other procedures. The author also introduces a basic algorithm, which enables readers to simulate samples from simple distribution, and describes useful cases for researchers in particle physics.The final chapter is devoted to the basic ideas of Information Theory, which are important in the Bayesian methodology. This highly readable book is appropriate for graduate-level courses, while at the same time being useful for scientific researches in general and for physicists in particular since most of the examples are from the field of Particle Physics.
Probability and Statistics in the Physical Sciences (Undergraduate Texts in Physics)
by Byron P. RoeThis book, now in its third edition, offers a practical guide to the use of probability and statistics in experimental physics that is of value for both advanced undergraduates and graduate students. Focusing on applications and theorems and techniques actually used in experimental research, it includes worked problems with solutions, as well as homework exercises to aid understanding. Suitable for readers with no prior knowledge of statistical techniques, the book comprehensively discusses the topic and features a number of interesting and amusing applications that are often neglected. Providing an introduction to neural net techniques that encompasses deep learning, adversarial neural networks, and boosted decision trees, this new edition includes updated chapters with, for example, additions relating to generating and characteristic functions, Bayes’ theorem, the Feldman-Cousins method, Lagrange multipliers for constraints, estimation of likelihood ratios, and unfolding problems.
Probability and Stochastic Processes for Physicists (UNITEXT for Physics)
by Nicola Cufaro PetroniThis book seeks to bridge the gap between the parlance, the models, and even the notations used by physicists and those used by mathematicians when it comes to the topic of probability and stochastic processes. The opening four chapters elucidate the basic concepts of probability, including probability spaces and measures, random variables, and limit theorems. Here, the focus is mainly on models and ideas rather than the mathematical tools. The discussion of limit theorems serves as a gateway to extensive coverage of the theory of stochastic processes, including, for example, stationarity and ergodicity, Poisson and Wiener processes and their trajectories, other Markov processes, jump-diffusion processes, stochastic calculus, and stochastic differential equations. All these conceptual tools then converge in a dynamical theory of Brownian motion that compares the Einstein–Smoluchowski and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck approaches, highlighting the most important ideas that finally led to a connection between the Schrödinger equation and diffusion processes along the lines of Nelson’s stochastic mechanics. A series of appendices cover particular details and calculations, and offer concise treatments of particular thought-provoking topics.
Probability Applications in Mechanical Design (Mechanical Engineering)
by Franklin E. Fisher Joy R. FisherThe authors of this text seek to clarify mechanical fatigue and design problems by applying probability and computer analysis, and further extending the uses of probability to determine mechanical reliability and achieve optimization. The work solves examples using commercially available software. It is formatted with examples and problems for use
Probability-Based Multi-objective Optimization for Material Selection
by Ying Cui Yi Wang Jie Yu Maosheng Zheng Haipeng TengThis book illuminates the fundamental principle and applications of probability-based multi-objective optimization for material selection systematically, in which a brand new concept of preferable probability and its assessment as well as other treatments are introduced by authors for the first time. Hybrids of the new approach with experimental design methodologies, such as response surface methodology, orthogonal experimental design, and uniform experimental design, are all performed; the conditions of the material performance utility with desirable value and robust assessment are included; the discretization treatment of complicated integral in the evaluation is presented. The authors wish this work will cast a brick to attract jade and would make its contributions to relevant fields as a paving stone. This book can be used as a textbook for postgraduate and advanced undergraduate students in material relevant majors, and a reference book for scientists and engineers digging in the related fields.
Probability-Based Multi-objective Optimization for Material Selection
by Maosheng Zheng Jie Yu Haipeng Teng Ying Cui Yi WangThe second edition of this book illuminates the fundamental principle and applications of probability-based multi-objective optimization for material selection in viewpoint of system theory, in which a brand new concept of preferable probability and its assessment as well as other treatments are introduced by authors for the first time. Hybrids of the new approach with experimental design methodologies (response surface methodology, orthogonal experimental design, and uniform experimental design) are all performed; robustness assessment and performance utility with desirable value are included; discretization treatment in the evaluation is presented; fuzzy-based approach and cluster analysis are involved; applications in portfolio investment and shortest path problem are concerned as well. The authors wish this work will cast a brick to attract jade and would make its contributions to relevant fields as a paving stone. It is designed to be used as a textbook for postgraduate and advanced undergraduate students in relevant majors, while also serving as a valuable reference book for scientists and engineers involved in related fields.
Probability for Statistics and Machine Learning
by Anirban DasguptaThis book provides a versatile and lucid treatment of classic as well as modern probability theory, while integrating them with core topics in statistical theory and also some key tools in machine learning. It is written in an extremely accessible style, with elaborate motivating discussions and numerous worked out examples and exercises. The book has 20 chapters on a wide range of topics, 423 worked out examples, and 808 exercises. It is unique in its unification of probability and statistics, its coverage and its superb exercise sets, detailed bibliography, and in its substantive treatment of many topics of current importance. This book can be used as a text for a year long graduate course in statistics, computer science, or mathematics, for self-study, and as an invaluable research reference on probabiliity and its applications. Particularly worth mentioning are the treatments of distribution theory, asymptotics, simulation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Markov chains and martingales, Gaussian processes, VC theory, probability metrics, large deviations, bootstrap, the EM algorithm, confidence intervals, maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates, exponential families, kernels, and Hilbert spaces, and a self contained complete review of univariate probability.
Probability in Physics
by Meir Hemmo Yemima Ben-MenahemWhat is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton's laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world's foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive.
Probability in Physics: An Introductory Guide (Undergraduate Lecture Notes in Physics)
by Andy LawrenceThis textbook presents an introduction to the use of probability in physics, treating introductory ideas of both statistical physics and of statistical inference, as well the importance of probability in information theory, quantum mechanics, and stochastic processes, in a unified manner. The book also presents a harmonised view of frequentist and Bayesian approaches to inference, emphasising their complementary value. The aim is to steer a middle course between the "cookbook" style and an overly dry mathematical statistics style. The treatment is driven by real physics examples throughout, but developed with a level of mathematical clarity and rigour appropriate to mid-career physics undergraduates. Exercises and solutions are included.
Probability is All We Have: Uncertainties, Delays, and Environmental Policy Making (Routledge Library Editions: Environmental Policy #10)
by James K. HammittFirst published in 1990. In this study, the author suggests ways that policy-makers can think about environmental policy choice that responds to the importance of uncertainty and delay. Hammitt describes several tools for environmental policy analysis and illustrates their application to important policy issues. In the first part of the book, dealing with stratospheric-ozone depletion, the author describes techniques for accommodating outcome uncertainties. The second part of the study considers the health risks associated with pesticide residues on food. The final section addresses the issue of potential global climate change, and describes how the tools explored can be applied to this new challenge. This book should be of greatest interest to academic, government, and industry analysts and others concerned with improving methods for environmental-policy making.
The Probability Map of the Universe: Essays on David Albert’s <i>Time and Chance</i>
by Barry Loewer, Brad Weslake, and Eric WinsbergPhilosophers debate the ideas and implications of one of the most important contemporary works in the philosophy of science, David Albert’s Time and Chance.In the twenty-odd years since its publication, David Albert’s Time and Chance has been recognized as one of the most significant contemporary contributions to the philosophy of science. Here, philosophers and physicists explore the implications of Albert’s arguments and debate his solutions to some of the most intractable problems in theoretical physics.Albert has attempted to make sense of the tension between our best scientific pictures of the fundamental physical structure of the world and our everyday empirical experience of that world. In particular, he is concerned with problems arising from causality and the direction of time: defying common sense, almost all our basic scientific ideas suggest that whatever can happen can just as naturally happen in reverse. Focusing on Newtonian mechanics, Albert provides a systematic account of the temporal irreversibility of the Second Law of Thermodynamics, of the asymmetries in our epistemic access to the past and the future, and of our conviction that by acting now we can affect the future but not the past. He also generalizes the Newtonian picture to the quantum-mechanical case and suggests a deep potential connection between the problem of the direction of time and the quantum-mechanical measurement problem.The essays included in The Probability Map of the Universe develop, explore, and critique this account, while Albert himself replies. The result is an insightful discussion of the foundations of statistical mechanics and its relation to cosmology, the direction of time, and the metaphysical nature of laws and objective probability.
The Probability of Purple Peas
by Christy MihalyWith the help of his pea plants, Gregor Mendel cracked the secret of heredity, how traits are passed from parents to children to grandchildren.
Probability, Statistics and Life Cycle Assessment: Guidance for Dealing with Uncertainty and Sensitivity
by Reinout HeijungsThis textbook discusses the use of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in environmental life cycle assessment (LCA). This is a topic which has received a lot of attention by journals, including the leading (Springer) International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment. Despite its importance, no coherent textbook exists that summarizes the progress that has been made in the last 20 years. This book attempts to fill that gap. Its audience is practitioners (professional and academic) of LCA, teachers, and Ph.D. students. It gives a very broad overview of the field: probability theory, descriptive statistics, inferential statistics, error analysis, sensitivity analysis, decision theory, etc., all in relation to LCA. Much effort has been taken to give a balanced overview, with a uniform terminology and mathematical notation.
Probability Theory: A Comprehensive Course
by Achim KlenkeThis second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms. To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as: * limit theorems for sums of random variables * martingales * percolation * Markov chains and electrical networks * construction of stochastic processes * Poisson point process and infinite divisibility * large deviation principles and statistical physics * Brownian motion * stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the chapters on measure theory interlaced with the probabilistic chapters in order to display the power of the abstract concepts in probability theory. This second edition has been carefully extended and includes many new features. It contains updated figures (over 50), computer simulations and some difficult proofs have been made more accessible. A wealth of examples and more than 270 exercises as well as biographic details of key mathematicians support and enliven the presentation. It will be of use to students and researchers in mathematics and statistics in physics, computer science, economics and biology.
Probable Impossibilities: Musings on Beginnings and Endings
by Alan LightmanFrom the acclaimed author of Einstein's Dreams, a collection of meditative essays on the possibilities, and impossibilities, of nothingness and infinity--and how our place in the cosmos falls somewhere in between.Can space be divided into smaller and smaller units, ad infinitum? Does space extend to larger and larger regions, on and on to infinity? Is consciousness reducible to the material brain and its neurons? What was the origin of life, and can biologists create life from scratch in the lab? Physicist and novelist Alan Lightman, whom the Washington Post has called "the poet laureate of science writers," explores these questions and more--from the anatomy of a smile to the capriciousness of memory to the specialness of life in the universe to what came before the Big Bang. Probable Impossibilities is a deeply engaging consideration of what we know of the universe, of life and the mind, and of things vastly larger, and smaller, than ourselves.
Probes of Multimessenger Astrophysics: Charged cosmic rays, neutrinos, γ-rays and gravitational waves (Astronomy and Astrophysics Library)
by Maurizio Spurio"I have taught from and enjoyed the first edition of the book. The selection of topics is the best I've seen. Maurizio Spurio gives very clear presentations using a generous amount of observational data. " James Matthews (Louisiana State University)This is the second edition of an introduction to “multi-messenger” astrophysics. It covers the many different aspects connecting particle physics with astrophysics and cosmology and introduces high-energy astrophysics using different probes: the electromagnetic radiation, with techniques developed by traditional astronomy; charged cosmic rays, gamma-rays and neutrinos, with methods developed in high-energy laboratories; and gravitational waves, recently observed using laser interferometers. The book offers a comprehensive and systematic approach to the theoretical background and the experimental aspects of the study of the high-energy universe. The breakthrough discovery of gravitational waves motivated this new edition of the book, to offer a more global and multimessenger vision of high-energy astrophysics. This second edition is updated and enriched with substantial new materials also deriving from the results obtained at the LIGO/Virgo observatories. For the first time it is now possible to draw the connection between gravitational waves, traditional astronomical observations and other probes (in particular, gamma-rays and neutrinos). The book draws on the extensive courses of Professor Maurizio Spurio at the University of Bologna and it is aimed at graduate students and post-graduate researchers with a basic understanding of particle and nuclear physics. It will also be of interest to particle physicists working in accelerator/collider physics who are keen to understand the mechanisms of the largest accelerators in the Universe.
Probing Correlated Quantum Many-Body Systems at the Single-Particle Level
by Manuel EndresHow much knowledge can we gain about a physical system and to what degree can we control it? In quantum optical systems, such as ion traps or neutral atoms in cavities, single particles and their correlations can now be probed in a way that is fundamentally limited only by the laws of quantum mechanics. In contrast, quantum many-body systems pose entirely new challenges due to the enormous number of microscopic parameters and their small length- and short time-scales. This thesis describes a new approach to probing quantum many-body systems at the level of individual particles: Using high-resolution, single-particle-resolved imaging and manipulation of strongly correlated atoms, single atoms can be detected and manipulated due to the large length and time-scales and the precise control of internal degrees of freedom. Such techniques lay stepping stones for the experimental exploration of new quantum many-body phenomena and applications thereof, such as quantum simulation and quantum information, through the design of systems at the microscopic scale and the measurement of previously inaccessible observables.
Probing Cosmic Dark Matter and Dark Energy with Weak Gravitational Lensing Statistics
by Masato ShirasakiIn this book the applicability and the utility of two statistical approaches for understanding dark energy and dark matter with gravitational lensing measurement are introduced. For cosmological constraints on the nature of dark energy, morphological statistics called Minkowski functionals (MFs) to extract the non-Gaussian information of gravitational lensing are studied. Measuring lensing MFs from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing survey (CFHTLenS), the author clearly shows that MFs can be powerful statistics beyond the conventional approach with the two-point correlation function. Combined with the two-point correlation function, MFs can constrain the equation of state of dark energy with a precision level of approximately 3-4 % in upcoming surveys with sky coverage of 20,000 square degrees. On the topic of dark matter, the author studied the cross-correlation of gravitational lensing and the extragalactic gamma-ray background (EGB). Dark matter annihilation is among the potential contributors to the EGB. The cross-correlation is a powerful probe of signatures of dark matter annihilation, because both cosmic shear and gamma-ray emission originate directly from the same dark matter distribution in the universe. The first measurement of the cross-correlation using a real data set obtained from CFHTLenS and the Fermi Large Area Telescope was performed. Comparing the result with theoretical predictions, an independent constraint was placed on dark matter annihilation. Future lensing surveys will be useful to constrain on the canonical value of annihilation cross section for a wide range of mass of dark matter annihilation. Future lensing surveys will be useful to constrain on the canonical value of annihilation cross section for a wide range of mass of dark matter.
Probing Galaxy Evolution by Unveiling the Structure of Massive Galaxies Across Cosmic Time and in Diverse Environments
by Timothy WeinzirlAwarded the American Astronomical Society (AAS) Rodger Doxsey Travel Prize, and with a foreword by thesis supervisor Professor Shardha Jogee at the University of Texas at Austin, this thesis discusses one of the primary outstanding problems in extragalactic astronomy: how galaxies form and evolve. Galaxies consist of two fundamental kinds of structure: rotationally supported disks and spheroidal/triaxial structures supported by random stellar motions. Understanding the balance between these galaxy components is vital to comprehending the relative importance of the different mechanisms (galaxy collisions, gas accretion and internal secular processes) that assemble and shape galaxies. Using panchromatic imaging from some of the largest and deepest space-based galaxy surveys, an empirical census of galaxy structure is made for galaxies at different cosmic epochs and in environments spanning low to extremely high galaxy number densities. An important result of this work is that disk structures are far more prevalent in massive galaxies than previously thought. The associated challenges raised for contemporary theoretical models of galaxy formation are discussed. The method of galaxy structural decomposition is treated thoroughly since it is relevant for future studies of galaxy structure using next-generation facilities, like the James Webb Space Telescope and the ground-based Giant Magellan Telescope with adaptive optics.